Global copper scrap LME payabilities have remained elevated and broadly stable in recent weeks, with no significant adjustments across major grades. This stability does not indicate a balanced market. Instead, tight supply, high copper prices and pressure on downstream margins have left payabilities caught between firm downside support and limited upside potential.
Global Offers Decline in Both Volume and Quality
According to SMM market research, the number of global copper scrap offers has declined noticeably, while the overall quality of available material has also deteriorated. High-grade material with stable composition and suitable specifications for Chinese buyers has become increasingly scarce. Some recent offers contain higher impurities, mixed grades or uncertain metal recovery rates.
China’s import data also point to tighter overseas availability. According to customs data compiled by SMM, China’s imports of recycled copper raw materials fell by nearly 20% MoM in August 2026. Given that Chinese companies continue to require compliant, VAT-invoiced imported material, the sharp decline suggests that the effective overseas supply available to Chinese buyers has decreased.
As a result, suppliers have little incentive to reduce payabilities despite subdued trading activity. Tight availability continues to provide strong support for Millberry and No. 1 copper scrap with stable quality.
High Copper Prices Limit Further Payability Gains
While tight supply supports payabilities, elevated copper prices have significantly increased buyers’ procurement costs and working-capital requirements.
Current payabilities are already near the upper end of what most downstream companies can accept. Any further increase would narrow the cost advantage of copper scrap over copper cathode and place additional pressure on processing margins. Buyers are therefore maintaining need-based procurement and remain reluctant to build inventories at current price levels.
Suppliers are unwilling to lower offers because of limited availability, while buyers are unwilling to chase higher prices due to cost pressure. This standoff has kept payabilities broadly unchanged.
Pre-Holiday Restocking Fails to Lift Trading Activity
With China’s National Day holiday approaching, some downstream companies have conducted limited pre-holiday restocking. Elevated copper prices have also strengthened overseas suppliers’ willingness to sell. However, restocking has remained largely demand-driven and has not developed into large-scale procurement.
Rising copper cathode spot premiums have also widened pricing differences between buyers and sellers. Suppliers believe the higher substitution value of copper scrap relative to cathode justifies maintaining or raising offers. Buyers, however, remain constrained by processing margins and working-capital pressure and are unwilling to increase bids further.
Market inquiries have continued, but actual trading activity remains subdued.
Payabilities Expected to Remain Elevated and Stable
As China enters the National Day holiday, downstream inquiries and procurement activity are expected to slow, potentially weakening overseas copper scrap trading further.
SMM expects the decline in both the volume and quality of overseas offers to continue supporting high-grade copper scrap payabilities. However, elevated copper prices, squeezed downstream margins and higher procurement costs will limit further gains. Global copper scrap LME payabilities are therefore expected to remain elevated and broadly stable in the short term.
