[SMM Türkiye Weekly Review] Flats Continue to Rise as HDG Hits New Highs; Longs Hold Firm Amid Cost Squeeze

Iranian steel exports demonstrated a structural divergence this week, characterized by active overland trade and restricted seaborne flows. Impacted by tensions in the Black Sea, reduced billet supply from Russia and Ukraine prompted West Asian buyers to pivot toward Iranian origins. Iran recently concluded at least 15,000 tonnes of square billet at 420–430 USD/tonne FCA border, primarily destined for re-export via Iraq to Syria and Jordan; despite border congestion elevating logistics expenses, buyers remained willing to pay a premium to secure spot availability. In contrast, seaborne exports were hampered by sanctions compliance risks, shipping capacity shortages, and exorbitant insurance premiums, stalling large-tonnage liquidity (freight to Oman's Port of Sohar reached 18–25 USD/tonne). Mainstream mills have already booked production through late November, leaving only small prompt billet parcels to move at 410–415 USD/tonne FOB to neighboring Gulf destinations. Notably, slab exports ground to a near standstill as mills pivoted entirely toward the domestic market. In the flat steel segment, supported by the Shalamcheh border crossing, HRC flowed steadily toward Iraq at 540–560 USD/tonne FCA; meanwhile, the Caspian Sea corridor saw Russian imports effectively frozen due to an acute lack of available shipping capacity. Looking ahead to next week, if transit constraints through the Strait of Hormuz and Gulf port congestion do not ease, the FOB-FCA spread will face further compression or even inversion. Mill strategies prioritizing domestic sales and overland borders are set to persist, leaving seaborne FOB export quotes with limited autonomous upside and keeping the market in a range-bound posture.

The following table shows the ferrous and nonferrous metals movement on the SHFE and DCE on 28 Sep , 2026

Indian domestic market showed a mixed trend on Monday compared with last week, with several steel prices declining WoW, while billet and sponge iron prices increased and scrap prices mostly eased. Melting down 9 USD/tonne (900 INR/tonne) to 385 USD/tonne (37,000 INR/tonne) ex-yard Alang. Mandi ingot dropped by 3 USD/tonne (300 INR/tonne) WoW to 494 USD/tonne (47,400 INR/tonne) delivered Mandi. HMS 1&2 (80:20) down 6 USD/tonne (600 INR/tonne) to 400 USD/tonne (38,400 INR/tonne) delivered Mandi. Rebar prices up 1 USD/tonne (100 INR/tonne) to 533 USD/tonne (51,200 INR/tonne) EXW Raipur. Mumbai rebar down 10 USD/tonne (1,000 INR/tonne) to 536 USD/tonne (51,500 INR/tonne) EXW Mumbai. Billet up 6 USD/tonne (600 INR/tonne) to 469 USD/tonne (45,000 INR/tonne) EXW Raipur. PDRI sponge iron up 6 USD/tonne (600 INR/tonne) to 304 USD/tonne (29,200 INR/tonne) EXW Raipur. Demand remained cautious with buyers mostly following need-based purchases. Looking ahead, demand may improve gradually as the monsoon season eases and festive activity picks up.