[SMM Silicon-Based PV Morning Meeting Summary] Silicon metal holds prices firm amid destocking, centralized modules weaken on concessions

SMM, September 28:

Silicon metal

Prices: Last week, oxygen-blown #553 silicon in east China was at 9,400-9,500 yuan/mt, and #441 silicon was at 9,500-9,600 yuan/mt. Downstream pre-holiday restocking and increased export demand, combined with higher freight costs, pushed up spot-futures price spread quotes in Tianjin, east China, and other regions. Some silicon suppliers raised their quote centers slightly, and low-priced cargoes in the market tightened. In September, silicon metal's own fundamentals maintained a tight supply pattern, and with cost support, the downside for prices remained solid. Market views were divided between bulls and bears. After the holiday, attention will focus on the pace of production cuts at southwest silicon enterprises during the dry season, the implementation of polysilicon production cuts, and changes in futures market sentiment.

Production: In September, operating rates at different silicon enterprises rose and fell in parallel, but overall the reduction was larger, and silicon metal production continued its downtrend in September. In October, electricity prices in Sichuan and Yunnan will edge up from September, raising production costs and reducing willingness to produce. Operating rates at Sichuan and Yunnan silicon enterprises are expected to decline MoM in October, with operating rates diverging between northern and southern silicon enterprises.

Inventories:

    Social inventory: SMM statistics show that as of September 24, total social inventory of silicon metal in major regions was 458,000 mt, down 28,000 mt WoW (including warrants, excluding Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, Gansu, and other regions).

Polysilicon

Prices: Over the weekend, mainstream producers' desired price for N-type recharging polysilicon was 39.5-42.3 yuan/kg. Transactions were limited during the holiday, and the market mainly executed old orders as the holiday approached. Related production cut measures are highly expected to be implemented in October, and related enterprise integration has made some progress.

Production: In September, multiple bases may resume production, and production will continue to increase. In October, affected by meetings and the arrival of the dry season, polysilicon production may decline.

Inventories: Market transactions are currently extremely limited, with almost no new orders signed, and polysilicon inventories have risen somewhat as a result. Some participants are trading warrants.

Modules

Prices: Last week, module prices in China fell again, but the decline was mainly in the centralized segment, while mainstream distributed transaction centers remained stable, with prices at some specialized enterprises easing slightly. In the centralized segment, as tender projects advanced, some enterprises targeting shipments began to cut prices to take orders, and bid prices were lowered. Competition is expected to remain intense going forward. Topcon 183, 210R, and 210N high-efficiency modules were quoted at 0.7085 yuan/W, 0.718 yuan/W, and 0.723 yuan/W, respectively. Centralized Topcon 182/183, 210N, and 210R high-efficiency modules were quoted at 0.694 yuan/W, 0.705 yuan/W, and 0.700 yuan/W, respectively.

Production: Module production in China is expected to rise in October. As centralized deliveries advance and export orders increase, module operating rates will improve accordingly, but nearly half of module producers still have stable or slightly lower production schedules.

Inventories: Last week, module inventories in China continued to decline. Recent enterprise shipments recovered from earlier levels, while supply remained relatively stable. Inventory levels began to fall as orders increased.

High-purity quartz sand

Prices: Currently, domestic inner-layer sand prices are 40,000-47,000 yuan/mt, middle-layer sand prices are 21,000-24,000 yuan/mt, outer-layer sand prices are 12,500-18,000 yuan/mt, and imported high-purity quartz sand prices are 50,000-53,000 yuan/mt. 33-inch quartz crucibles are priced at 5,400-5,700 yuan/piece, and 36-inch quartz crucibles are priced at 6,450-6,600 yuan/piece. Sand prices have been mostly stable recently, but there are signals of lower crucible prices. Top-tier producers have not fully adjusted prices yet, but smaller producers have begun to cut prices to compete for orders. Crucible prices are expected to remain in a stalemate and consolidate in the short term.

Production: Quartz sand production has remained basically stable recently. Overall crucible production schedules are expected to remain stable in October, with little change on the quartz sand supply side.

Inventories: Recently, domestic imported sand inventories have stayed high, but imported sand inventories have begun to decline, mainly because some crucible producers have started to sell imported sand resources appropriately.

PV glass

Prices:

    3.2mm single-layer coating: 3.2mm single-layer coated PV glass was quoted at 15.8-16.8 yuan/m², with stable prices.

    3.2mm double-layer coating: 3.2mm double-layer coated PV glass was quoted at 16.8-17.8 yuan/m², with stable prices.

    2.0mm single-layer coating: 2.0mm single-layer coated PV glass was quoted at 9.7-10.5 yuan/m². This week, glass producers are expected to begin negotiating prices for new orders. Recent domestic downstream orders have increased slightly, but under cost constraints, acceptance of glass prices has not changed yet, and resistance to price hikes remains. Short-term glass prices are expected to remain in a stalemate and consolidate.

    2.0mm double-layer coating: 2.0mm double-layer coated PV glass was quoted at 10.7-11.5 yuan/m², with stable prices.

Production: Last week, there were no new cold repairs of furnaces in China. Although production days will increase in October, production changes are expected to be limited due to the impact of earlier production cuts at furnaces.

Inventories: Last week, days of inventories for PV glass in China declined slightly. As month-end and the holiday approached, enterprise shipments began to fall. Shipments are expected to officially resume after the holiday, but production remains normal, so inventories are expected to rise as a result.