9.28 Alumina Morning Comment
Futures Market: Overnight, the most-traded alumina 2701 contract retreated after a rapid rise, opening at 2,698 yuan/mt, hitting an intraday high of 2,705 yuan/mt before pulling back under pressure, and dropping to an intraday low of 2,687 yuan/mt, where it closed. The daily candlestick formed a bearish Marubozu with an upper shadow, indicating significant selling pressure above 2,700 yuan/mt and insufficient rebound momentum. Trading volume continued to shrink, decreasing by 6,611 lots from the previous trading day to 64,159 lots, with market activity remaining low as both bulls and bears turned cautious and wait-and-see. Open interest increased by 3,305 lots to 237,000 lots, with positions accumulating against the trend during the retreat after the rapid rise, suggesting a growing willingness among bears to add positions and persistent market divergence. Technically, the closing price of 2,687 yuan/mt has fallen below MA5 (2,700.61), MA10 (2,707.19), MA20 (2,712.27), and MA40 (2,721.36), with the moving average system maintaining a bearish alignment and pressing lower level by level. The short-term technical pattern has weakened again, and the previous short-term moving average support has been effectively broken. Overall, the futures market exhibited bearish characteristics of "declining on shrinking volume, losing all moving averages, and rising open interest against the trend." The short-term rebound repair failed to sustain, and the price center shifted lower again. Resistance above lies at MA5 (2,700.61) and the psychological 2,700 yuan/mt level, while support below is seen at the previous low of 2,670 yuan/mt and the 2,650 yuan/mt area. Before trading volume can effectively expand and prices can reclaim the short-term moving averages, the market is expected to continue consolidating on a weak note at low levels.
Bauxite: As of September 24, 2026, the SMM imported bauxite CIF index stood at $72.41/mt, up $0.02/mt from the previous trading day. The average price of high-grade bauxite (Shanxi) was 585 yuan/mt, unchanged from the previous trading day; low-grade bauxite (Shanxi) averaged 540 yuan/mt, unchanged; high-grade bauxite (Henan) averaged 590 yuan/mt, unchanged; low-grade bauxite (Henan) averaged 520 yuan/mt, unchanged; high-grade bauxite (Guangxi) averaged 365 yuan/mt, unchanged; low-grade bauxite (Guangxi) averaged 327.5 yuan/mt, unchanged; high-grade bauxite (Guizhou) averaged 495 yuan/mt, unchanged; low-grade bauxite (Guizhou) averaged 400 yuan/mt, unchanged; Guiyang bauxite (60%/6.0) averaged 515 yuan/mt, unchanged; SMM Australian low-temperature bauxite CIF averaged $67.5/mt, unchanged; SMM Australian high-temperature bauxite CIF averaged $60.5/mt, unchanged; SMM Guinean bauxite FOB averaged $40/dmt, unchanged; SMM Guinean bauxite CIF averaged $71.5/mt, unchanged; Malaysian bauxite CIF averaged $52/mt, unchanged; Malaysian bauxite CIF (washed) averaged $62.5/mt, unchanged; Ghanaian bauxite CIF averaged $78/mt, unchanged; Indonesian bauxite FOB averaged $37/mt in physical content, unchanged; bauxite CFR (Turkey) price was $72.5/dmt, unchanged; bauxite FOB (Pakistan) averaged $58.5/dmt, unchanged.
Alumina spot: On September 24, the SMM alumina index stood at 2,671.59 yuan/mt, down 0.27 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; the SMM Shandong alumina index stood at 2,673.67 yuan/mt, down 0.19 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; the SMM Henan alumina index stood at 2,692.89 yuan/mt, down 0.74 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; the SMM Shanxi alumina index stood at 2,694.30 yuan/mt, down 0.34 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; the SMM Guizhou alumina index stood at 2,703.20 yuan/mt, down 0.34 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; the SMM Guangxi alumina index stood at 2,584.42 yuan/mt, down 0.29 yuan/mt from the previous trading day.
Spot-futures price spread daily: According to SMM data, on September 24, the SMM alumina index was at a discount of 19.41 yuan/mt against the latest traded price of the most-traded contract at 11:30.
Warrant daily: On September 24, total registered alumina warrants stood at 231,500 mt, flat from the previous trading day; total registered alumina warrants in Shandong stood at 3,897 mt, flat from the previous trading day; total registered alumina warrants in Henan stood at 0 mt, flat from the previous trading day; total registered alumina warrants in Guangxi stood at 48,999 mt, flat from the previous trading day; total registered alumina warrants in Gansu stood at 24,868 mt, flat from the previous trading day; total registered alumina warrants in Xinjiang stood at 153,800 mt, flat from the previous trading day.
Markets outside China: As of September 24, 2026, the FOB Western Australia alumina price was $349/mt, with an ocean freight rate of $35.65/mt and the USD/CNY selling rate around 6.73. This translates to an external selling price of about 3,006.53 yuan/mt at major domestic ports, which is 334.94 yuan/mt above the alumina index price.
Summary: As of now, total alumina inventory across China has continued to build, but the pace of inventory buildup has slowed compared with earlier periods. By segment, raw material inventory at aluminum smelters edged up, and the pace of downstream stockpiling improved slightly; finished product inventories at alumina refineries continued to accumulate, mainly due to a rebound in operating rates and higher production; port inventory basically stopped falling and stabilized, with the pace of re-exports from bonded areas and discharge at ports slowing; in-transit and station yard inventory edged up, and inventory in logistics segments increased. On the industry side, both total built capacity and total operating capacity of alumina in China expanded, weekly production continued to rise, and the operating rate edged up. The production increase was mainly driven by newly commissioned capacity in Guangxi, further intensifying the supply-demand surplus. Futures prices consolidated on a weak note at low levels, with futures and spot trends diverging somewhat. Market trading activity declined, and both longs and shorts turned cautious and wait-and-see, with no clear directional driver emerging yet. Downstream aluminum smelters mainly purchased as needed, with raw material inventory restocked slightly, and no concentrated stockpiling was observed. Looking ahead, operating capacity and weekly operating rate are expected to continue edging up. On the inventory side, China's production stays high, while slower port re-export and unloading pace provide an offset, so total alumina inventory nationwide is expected to continue a slight buildup trend. On the price side, the loose supply-demand pattern remains unchanged and upward momentum is weak, so spot prices are expected to stay stable, mainly moving sideways.
[All data other than public information are processed by SMM based on public information, market communication, and SMM's internal database models, and are for reference only and do not constitute decision-making advice.]
![September 28, 2026 Aluminum Ingot [SMM Data]](https://imgqn.smm.cn/usercenter/ECUsL20251217171652.jpg)
