SMM Copper Morning Briefing | Monday, September 28, 2026

Overnight LME copper closed lower, mainly driven by increased bearish positioning; SHFE copper was closed for the Mid-Autumn Festival holiday. With macro rate hike expectations weighing on prices and supply tightness easing marginally, copper prices are expected to consolidate on a subdued note within a narrow range today.

I. Overnight Trading

LME Copper:

Opened at $14,668.5/mt, hit a high of $14,691.5/mt and a low of $14,568.5/mt, and closed at $14,632/mt, down 0.1%. Trading volume was 10,000 lots, and open interest stood at 262,000 lots, up 419 lots from the previous trading day, reflecting increased bearish positioning.

Most-traded SHFE copper 2610 contract:

Closed for the Mid-Autumn Festival holiday.

II. News

On Thursday, September 24, two unions at Antofagasta Minerals' Centinela copper mine in Chile called on workers to vote on a strike, saying negotiations with the company had reached an "impasse."

The two unions are "Trabajadores de Minera Esperanza" and "Trabajadores Distrito Centinela." After participating in collective bargaining, the unions received the company's latest proposal under the formal consultation process on Wednesday, with the strike vote scheduled for September 26-28.

In a statement, the unions said: "The latest proposal received today fails to even address the discrimination issue, and the long-standing disparity in treatment remains unresolved." The unions added that they are financially prepared for a strike at the mine that could last "multiple days."

Under Chilean law, if the proposal is rejected, both parties must first undergo a mandatory five-day government mediation period; by mutual agreement, the mediation period can be extended by another five days, and only after mediation is completed can a strike be authorized to begin. Antofagasta Minerals declined to comment on the collective labor negotiations.

III. Spot Market

1) Shanghai

On September 24, SMM #1 copper cathode spot prices against the SHFE copper 2610 contract were quoted at a premium of 1,150-1,480 yuan/mt, with an average premium of 1,315 yuan/mt, down 25 yuan/mt from the previous trading day.

In early trading, the SHFE copper 2610 contract retreated after a rapid rise and then consolidated at lows. After the open, prices quickly surged to around 110,930 yuan/mt, then rapidly pulled back to around 110,620 yuan/mt. Copper prices subsequently rebounded somewhat, but upward momentum was limited, with futures mainly consolidating around the 110,750 yuan/mt level. Prices briefly rebounded to around 110,900 yuan/mt during the session, then moved sideways in a narrow range near midday, closing the morning session at 110,740 yuan/mt.

The backwardation spread between the front-month and next-month contracts was 520-550 yuan/mt; the import profit margin for SHFE copper against the 2610 contract for the current month was at a loss of 1,580-1,470 yuan/mt.

Procurement sentiment was 2.75, down 0.92 MoM; sales sentiment was 3.72, up 0.01 MoM.

On September 24, SMM recorded social inventory in Shanghai at 46,300 mt, up 2,400 mt MoM, mainly due to the gradual arrival of some imported copper replenishing supply; social inventory in Jiangsu was recorded at 18,200 mt, down 2,400 mt MoM, mainly due to relatively limited arrivals.

Demand side, as some downstream enterprises gradually completed pre-holiday stockpiling, market purchasing enthusiasm cooled noticeably. Intraday spot trades weakened significantly compared with the previous trading day, market trading turned sluggish, and suppliers were forced to lower quotes to facilitate transactions. According to SMM, during this year's National Day holiday, some downstream processing enterprises had slightly more days off YoY, leaving relatively limited room for further restocking before the holiday; meanwhile, high copper prices combined with a steep backwardation structure continued to strongly deter downstream procurement.

Supply side, if imported cargoes continue to arrive at ports, the tightness of available supply in the market may ease somewhat. Overall, demand-side support is gradually weakening, while the supply side is marginally improving. Spot premiums are expected to continue edging down this week.

2) Guangdong

On September 24, Guangdong #1 copper cathode spot prices against the front-month contract:

• High-quality copper was quoted at a premium of 1,400 yuan/mt, flat from the previous trading day;
• Standard-quality copper was quoted at a premium of 1,100 yuan/mt, flat from the previous trading day;
• SX-EW copper was quoted at a premium of 1,040 yuan/mt, flat from the previous trading day.

The average price of Guangdong #1 copper cathode was 111,985 yuan/mt, down 630 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; the average price of SX-EW copper was 111,775 yuan/mt, down 630 yuan/mt from the previous trading day.

Procurement sentiment was 2.61, down 0.08 from the previous trading day; shipment sentiment was 2.73, up 0.02 from the previous trading day.

Overall, inventory hit a new low for the year, and spot premiums remained elevated, but spot trades had already weakened compared with yesterday.

3) Imported copper

September 24:

• Average warrant price was $117/mt, flat from the previous trading day, with a price range of $110-124/mt;
• Average B/L price was 112 yuan/mt, flat from the previous trading day, with a price range of 104-120 yuan/mt;
• Average EQ copper (CIF B/L) price was $52/mt, flat from the previous trading day, with a price range of $44-60/mt.

Quotes referenced cargoes arriving from September to mid-to-late October.

4) Secondary copper

At 11:30 on September 24, futures closing price was 110,740 yuan/mt, down 190 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; average spot premium was 1,315 yuan/mt, down 25 yuan/mt MoM from the previous trading day.

Secondary copper raw material prices fell 100 yuan/mt MoM; the sales sentiment index dropped to 2.61, while the procurement sentiment index rose to 1.97; the price difference between copper cathode and copper scrap stood at 4,526 yuan/mt, down 100 yuan/mt MoM; the price difference between copper cathode rod and secondary copper rod was 2,140 yuan/mt.

According to an SMM survey, with the Mid-Autumn Festival holiday approaching, many secondary copper rod enterprises wanted to procure as much copper scrap as possible for stockpiling, but due to invoice issues that secondary copper raw material suppliers could not resolve, procurement volumes at scrap utilization enterprises were extremely limited. Many secondary copper rod enterprises' pre-holiday raw material inventories could not even meet production needs during the Mid-Autumn Festival.

IV. Price Outlook

Macro:

Trump is expected to hold more talks with Iran this week, and Iran indicated it could reopen the Strait of Hormuz within seven days, easing geopolitical conflict risks. However, market expectations for US Fed interest rate hikes continued to build, capping the upside for copper prices.

Fundamentals:

Supply side, some imported cargoes arrived, but overall arrivals were limited, and the tightness of available supply in the market eased marginally. Demand side, downstream pre-holiday stockpiling was largely completed, and market procurement sentiment cooled.

Overall, copper prices are expected to consolidate on a subdued note in a narrow range today.

The information provided is for reference only and does not constitute direct investment research advice. Clients should make decisions prudently and not use this as a substitute for independent judgment. Any decisions made by clients are not related to SMM.