Futures: Last Friday, LME zinc opened at $3,957/mt. After the opening, LME zinc rose and hit a high of $3,989.5/mt, then moved lower all the way below the daily average line, dipping to $3,889/mt near the end of the session, and finally closed down at $3,893.5/mt, down $71.5/mt, or 1.80%. Trading volume decreased to 10,062 lots, while open interest increased by 2,097 lots to 264,100 lots. Last Friday, SHFE zinc was closed for the Mid-Autumn Festival holiday.
Macro: Trump is expected to hold more talks with Iran, possibly starting new dialogue as early as Monday; sources said Iran's foreign minister will return home on Tuesday, and the delegation has no plan to hold talks with the US; Trump said he has been considering whether to resume strikes on Iran; the UK evacuated residents near a base used by US forces, and multiple people were arrested in connection with explosives; Bessent urged the US Fed to keep an open attitude toward the inflation outlook; China and the US reached an eight-point consensus.
Spot:
Shanghai: In Shanghai, refined zinc purchasing sentiment was 2.06, and selling sentiment was 2.52. Last Thursday morning, zinc prices on the futures market consolidated, downstream enterprises had largely completed pre-holiday stockpiling, and mostly purchased as needed after making inquiries, with overall spot trades being moderate. However, with the two festivals approaching, it was relatively difficult to find vehicles in the market, and freight costs continued to rise, driving up spot premiums for some downstream zinc ingot purchases.
Guangdong: In Guangdong, refined zinc purchasing sentiment was 1.80, and selling sentiment was 2.60. Zinc price center moved higher, traders had difficulty selling, and downstream enterprises had already made purchases at fixed prices recently. Last Thursday, overall market transactions were weak, and spot premiums moved lower.
Tianjin: In Tianjin, refined zinc purchasing sentiment was 1.75, and selling sentiment was 2.25. Futures consolidated at highs, downstream players mainly stayed on the sidelines, with few inquiries and mainly picking up previously priced zinc ingots. Traders were not active in selling, premiums held steady, and overall market trading sentiment was weak.
Ningbo: With the two festivals approaching, market quotes were relatively chaotic. In the morning, zinc prices on the futures market consolidated. Downstream enterprises had previously purchased as needed to restock, and last Thursday the market was mostly in a wait-and-see mode, with overall purchasing performance being moderate.
Inventory: On September 25, LME zinc inventory decreased by 1,600 mt to 121,600 mt, down 1.30%. According to SMM communication, as of September 24, domestic inventory decreased to around 205,000 mt.
Zinc price forecast: Last Friday, LME zinc recorded a bearish candlestick, with the lower Bollinger Band providing support below. Last Friday, the US dollar index closed slightly lower amid factors such as easing inflation concerns, but market expectations for rate hikes heated up. LME zinc rose first and then fell, maintaining a fluctuating trend. Currently, the overseas backwardation structure remains in place, and attention should be paid to LME inventory performance.
Data source statement: Except for public information, all other data are processed by SMM based on public information, market communication, and SMM's internal database models, for reference only and not constituting decision-making advice.
