Precious metals futures plunged at week's end; platinum and palladium spot market consumption moderate [SMM Pt & Pd Weekly Review]

[Platinum & Palladium Price Review and Forecast]

This week (September 18-September 24), platinum and palladium prices initially rose before pulling back, rebounded after the rate hike landed, and then slumped ahead of the weekend. Both metals closed lower for the week, with palladium's decline slightly greater than platinum's.

At the start of the week (Friday, September 18), the US Fed raised rates by 25bp to 3.75%-4.00% in the early hours of the previous trading day, as expected. Although the hawkish tone remained, the rate hike magnitude was in line with expectations, and market sentiment warmed on the "bad news exhausted" theme, sending both platinum and palladium higher. However, the Fed's latest dot plot showed 16 officials expect at least one more rate hike before the end of 2026, and Warsh stressed at the press conference that inflation remains high and the focus is on price stability, keeping the hawkish tone intact and lifting market expectations for continued rate hikes.

Mid-week, platinum and palladium entered a post-hike consolidation phase, fluctuating within a range amid mixed signals. During this period, the 10-year US Treasury yield continued to climb and the US dollar index strengthened, with rate-side pressure gradually emerging.

On Thursday, the US dollar index rose above 101, and the 10-year US Treasury yield broke above 5%, hitting a new high since 2007. Market expectations for another rate hike at the October FOMC meeting intensified. Meanwhile, although the US and Iran resumed contact, the three-hour talks revealed substantial differences. Iran's president said the Strait of Hormuz would remain closed, and rising oil prices exacerbated inflation concerns. Platinum and palladium suffered heavy losses. The most-traded GFEX platinum PT2612 contract opened sharply lower and closed down at 429.15 yuan/g, while the most-traded palladium PD2612 contract closed down at 300.45 yuan/g, with an intraday low below the 300 yuan round-number level at 298.45 yuan/g, a new low since mid-July.

In the spot market, most downstream buyers actively purchased at short-term lows following the futures market last week, resulting in good stockpiling. Combined with the mild uptick in futures in the first half of this week after the rate hike landed, market consumption softened compared with last week. Toward the weekend, platinum and palladium futures slumped, with prices falling to weekly lows. Downstream buying interest re-emerged, spot discounts narrowed overall, and transactions at mid-to-low quotations were active. With the holiday atmosphere building, some traders showed low willingness to sell and chose to hold prices firm, slightly widening the spread between quoted prices. Overall, spot platinum and palladium market transactions were moderate this week. Mainstream platinum quotations were concentrated at discounts of 3 yuan/g to 1 yuan/g against GFEX PT2612, while mainstream palladium quotations were concentrated at discounts of 2.5 yuan/g to 0.5 yuan/g against GFEX PD2612.

Looking ahead, the Fed has resumed rate hikes and the dot plot suggests one more hike may come this year. The 10-year US Treasury yield has broken above 5%, a new high since 2007, and the US dollar is strengthening. Rate-side pressure is unlikely to fade in the short term. Expectations of a Strait of Hormuz closure are pushing up oil prices and inflation, which in turn reinforces the rate hike logic, creating a negative feedback loop for precious metals and limiting upside for platinum and palladium. At the same time, the market has digested rate hike expectations relatively quickly, and the "bad news exhausted" sentiment persists. Signs of decoupling between precious metals and interest rates are emerging, and gold ETF holdings hitting a seven-month high provides bottom support. Going forward, close attention should be paid to Fed officials' speeches, US September inflation and employment data, the policy path at the October FOMC meeting, and geopolitical developments in the Middle East. In the short term, platinum and palladium are likely to continue to consolidate on a subdued note.

[Platinum & Palladium Weekly Data Commentary]

COMEX platinum and palladium inventories maintained a divergent pattern this week. Platinum inventories continued their destocking trend, with registered inventories at around 190,000 oz as of mid-September, at an extremely low level in the 10th percentile historically. Deliverable buffers are thin, and the tight supply-side pattern remains unchanged. Total inventories stood at around 390,000 oz, with the registered share at approximately 48%-49%. Palladium inventories remained high and consolidating, with registered inventories at around 198,000 oz and total inventories at around 250,000 oz. The registered share was nearly 80%, and US warehouse buffer inventories remained near one-year highs, with the ample supply pattern unchanged.

On the import side, according to customs data, August 2026 imports of unwrought platinum and platinum powder were approximately 8.11 mt, down 2.87% MoM and up 11.55% YoY. August 2026 imports of unwrought palladium and palladium powder were approximately 3.35 mt, up 12.04% MoM and up 73.58% YoY. Overall, the import centers for platinum and palladium in 2026 are both significantly higher than the same periods in 2023-2025, indicating that domestic platinum and palladium supply remains relatively ample. Combined with export restriction policies, domestic surplus is difficult to absorb through exports.

On lease rates, London platinum and palladium lease rates remained at low levels. The one-month platinum lease rate stayed below 2%, while the one-month palladium lease rate hovered near 1%, indicating ample spot market liquidity and weak lending demand, with the overall ample supply pattern unchanged.

[Platinum Group Compounds]

This week, both products showed a pattern of initial stability followed by declines, with both falling notably in the second half of the week.

Chloroplatinic acid stabilized at 178.5 yuan/g at the start of the week, edged up to 179.5 yuan/g on Wednesday, then fell 4.5 yuan/g in a single day on Thursday to 175 yuan/g, essentially returning to the lower end of the mid-September consolidation range. Over the past month, this product has fluctuated widely within the 174.5-188 yuan/g range, touching a low of 174.5 yuan/g on September 2 and rebounding to 185 yuan/g on September 10 before weakening again. Palladium chloride ground lower day by day this week without any rebound, falling from 195.5 yuan/g on Monday to 190.5 yuan/g on Thursday, approaching the September 11 low of 189.5 yuan/g. It had stood above 200 yuan/g in late August, but its center has clearly shifted lower since September.

In the spot market, end-use demand is recovering slowly and remains below expectations overall. Compound enterprises are generally pessimistic about raw material prices, mainly buying the dip and stockpiling in small quantities.