SMM Statistics: Changes in Aluminum Ingot and Billet Inventory Before and After National Day, 2020-2026

September 24 news:

[SMM Inventory Statistics] According to SMM statistics, changes in aluminum ingot and aluminum billet (collectively referred to as aluminum inventory) inventories at major consumption areas in China around the National Day holiday from 2020 to 2026: overall destocking before the holiday, with the most concentrated inventory buildup during the holiday, followed by a pullback after the holiday. During the one-week National Day holiday period (September 30 to October 8) from 2020 to 2025, aluminum ingot, aluminum billet, and total aluminum inventories all accumulated, with aluminum ingot increases of 4.0%-17.3%, aluminum billet increases of 12.7%-66.0%, and total aluminum inventory increases of 6.9%-21.2%, with the aluminum billet buildup significantly larger than that of aluminum ingots; in the second week after the holiday (October 22), aluminum ingots did not build up again except in 2021, while aluminum billets shifted to destocking in all six years.

In 2026, before the holiday, aluminum ingots saw significant destocking for two consecutive weeks, decreasing by 63,000 mt (-7.9%) on September 17 and 55,000 mt (-7.5%) on September 24, with a cumulative two-week destocking of 118,000 mt, the steepest for the same period in recent years; aluminum billet destocking also accelerated, with decreases of 500 mt and 3,500 mt over the two weeks, respectively. On September 10, total aluminum inventory stood at 949,000 mt (796,000 mt of aluminum ingots and 153,000 mt of aluminum billets), the highest for the same period since 2020.