On the evening of September 23 Beijing time through the afternoon of September 23 local time, President Xi Jinping arrived in Washington by special plane for a state visit to the US at the invitation of US President Trump, with the itinerary running through September 25. An advance Chinese economic and trade team had already traveled to New York for related talks. In the China-US economic and trade agenda, rare earths and critical minerals remain one of the key themes drawing close market attention.
I. The Visit Itinerary and Policy Background on Rare Earth Issues
Prior to this state visit to Washington, China-US rare earth communication had already gone through multiple rounds of engagement. In April 2025, China imposed export controls on seven categories of medium-heavy rare earth-related items, requiring export operators to apply for licenses in accordance with regulations. In June, the Ministry of Commerce proposed accelerating rare earth export approvals to ease supply chain pressure outside China. On October 9, 2025, the Ministry of Commerce and the General Administration of Customs issued a series of announcements covering certain overseas rare earth items, rare earth technologies, rare earth equipment and raw and auxiliary materials, as well as medium-heavy rare earth varieties such as holmium, forming a full-chain control framework spanning "raw materials—technology—equipment—end products," originally scheduled to take effect on November 8.
Subsequently, China and the US reached a de-escalation arrangement during economic and trade consultations in Kuala Lumpur. On October 30, the Ministry of Commerce stated that it would study detailed implementation plans. On November 7, the Ministry of Commerce and the General Administration of Customs announced the suspension of measures under Announcements No. 55, 56, 57, 58, 61, and 62 of 2025 involving rare earths, lithium batteries, and other items, with the suspension period running until November 10, 2026, as a concrete step to implement the Kuala Lumpur consensus. At a regular press conference in April 2026, the Ministry of Commerce further clarified that, based on the Kuala Lumpur consensus, the export control measures announced on October 9, 2025, were suspended until November 10, 2026, with both sides maintaining ongoing communication through the economic and trade consultation mechanism. Export applications confirmed to be for civilian use and compliant with regulations would be approved in accordance with the law. On September 21, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs was also asked about rare earth supply and the November 10 deadline, and responded that specific export control matters should be directed to the competent authorities, and that China's position is to maintain the stability of global critical minerals supply and production chains.
II. NdFeB Exports: Process Standardization Rather Than Substantive Disruption
SMM field surveys show that from August to September 2026, NdFeB exports overall exhibited a pattern of "slower processes and more detailed scrutiny." Relevant agencies have tightened verification of end-use applications, receiving entities, resale risks, and military sensitivity of exported products. Some orders have seen longer customs declaration and documentation cycles, but no comprehensive ban has been imposed. Enterprises whose end users are in civilian scenarios such as automobiles, wind power, industrial motors, and humanoid robots, and whose client materials, contracts, and end-use statements are complete, can still proceed with license applications.
In terms of overall volume, China's average monthly NdFeB exports are approximately 5,200 mt. Excluding the January peak of around 6,000 mt, most other months fall within the 4,600-5,500 mt range. By region, Europe accounts for approximately 44%, Asia approximately 39%, and North America approximately 10%, with the overall structure remaining relatively stable. This structure indicates that while North America is a policy-sensitive region, it does not represent the largest share of China's total magnetic material exports. Demand for industrial motors, automobiles, and consumer electronics in Europe and Asia is equally critical to overall export average prices and capacity utilization rates. If mechanisms such as civilian license pre-approval, category whitelists, and general license renewals become clearer after the Washington meeting, marginal improvement in Q4 exports can be expected, but it is more likely to manifest as "greater predictability in approvals" rather than unconditional volume expansion.
III. Pr-Nd Price Increases: Sentiment Leads, Fundamentals Provide the Floor
Since mid-September, light rare earths have shown Pr-Nd series leading the gains while other varieties consolidate. SMM data shows that on September 24, spot Pr-Nd oxide was quoted at 737,000-739,000 yuan/mt, up 2,500 yuan/mt from the previous day, while spot Pr-Nd alloy was quoted at 893,000-900,000 yuan/mt, up 9,000 yuan/mt from the previous day. Regarding this round of increases, the market tends to equate "China-US meeting expectations" directly with "a widening supply-demand gap," but SMM believes the main driver of the current price rise lies more at the sentiment level rather than across-the-board overbuying of end-use orders.
Rare earths are a highly policy-driven commodity with low information transparency. Any news involving China-US consultations, export controls, quota totals, or imported ore fluctuations is quickly converted into price expectations by the trading segment. With limited downstream absorption and no widespread surge in new magnetic material orders, the industry creates new sentiment outlets through news flow: upstream suppliers hold firm on quotes, traders hold back from selling, magnetic material plants restock on an as-needed basis, and speculative capital trades the "easing expectations" in advance, forming a short-term transmission chain of "news—expectations—quotes—selective transactions." This is an important marginal factor in current Pr-Nd prices, but it should not be misread as fundamentals having already become broadly tight.
From the perspective of China's NdFeB segment, years of technological accumulation have given China clear advantages in magnet performance, grade coverage, and delivery capability. However, capacity has continued to expand in recent years, and some conventional specifications are already in surplus compared with previous years. The involution among midstream magnetic material producers and the pressure on product price spreads have not fundamentally eased. Against the backdrop of shifting growth rates in traditional domestic demand, identifying emerging NdFeB demand growth points has become an industry imperative: NEV drive motors, direct-drive wind power, and servo robots form the medium and long-term base, but not all sub-segments have entered an "overbought" state in the short term. Exports have therefore naturally become an important outlet for absorbing capacity and securing higher value-added orders, while exports are in turn affected by control rules, end-use applications, compliance materials, and licensing pace, further amplifying news sensitivity.
For this reason, the significance of the China-US meeting for rare earth prices is more of a sentiment positive from "reduced policy uncertainty" rather than a supply-demand positive from "sudden supply shortages and sudden demand doubling." As a third-party market observer, SMM welcomes further progress in China-US relations and believes the relevant talks will help improve expectations for compliant rare earth trade. However, precisely during periods of intensive news flow, it is all the more important to avoid equating "the meeting" with "full removal of controls" or equating "sentiment-driven gains" with "a reason to chase prices and lock in inventory."
From the policy perspective, as experience with export controls accumulates and compliance review processes improve, the future is more likely to move toward normalized category-based management rather than a "one-size-fits-all" approach. For NdFeB and magnetic component orders that are confirmed to be for civilian use, with clear end-use applications and traceable end users, compliant channels will continue to be opened. For orders involving military use, high resale risk, or unclear applications, scrutiny will remain strict. Even if some control measures undergo suspension or renewal pace changes, civilian NdFeB demand outside China can still be secured through compliant licensing, general licenses, and long-term contract frameworks. Overseas enterprises need not engage in panic stockpiling due to pre-meeting public opinion, nor should they assume an automatic return to extreme looseness after the meeting.
IV. Conclusion
Overall, the Q4 Pr-Nd price center is supported by "news-driven expectations + low raw ore operating rates + low inventory + some restocking," but the upside is constrained by surplus in certain NdFeB specifications, substitution outside China and inventory adjustments, and the pace of end-use order fulfillment. SMM's assessment is that the market should treat sentiment as a trading rhythm and compliance and end-use demand as the pricing foundation: meeting expectations can bring pulse-style gains, but only when orders from new energy, wind power, robotics, and other sectors shift from inquiries to sustained contracting will price increases gain fundamental momentum. Rationally analyzing supply and demand, making decisions based on actual enterprise absorption, and avoiding herd behavior remain the more prudent choices at present.
![[SMM Rare Earth Morning Meeting Summary] Pr-Nd pulls back from highs, dysprosium and terbium weaken in tandem](https://imgqn.smm.cn/usercenter/QLmfa20251217171745.jpg)
