According to data from the General Administration of Customs, China's aluminum scrap imports in August 2026 were 141,800 mt, up 18.60% MoM but down 17.67% YoY, ending a four-month decline streak that began in April. Cumulative imports in January-August 2026 totaled approximately 1.243 million mt, down about 7.5% YoY, with the cumulative decline widening from 6.1% in January-July. Overall, August imports showed a clear MoM recovery, but the YoY decline remained nearly 20%.
From a monthly pace perspective, aluminum scrap imports in 2026 peaked at 197,300 mt in March, then declined for four consecutive months, hitting a year-to-date low of 119,600 mt in July. August rebounded 18.60% MoM to 141,800 mt, recovering some lost ground but still below the May level of 152,100 mt.
On a cumulative basis, January-August imports totaled 1.243 million mt, down about 7.5% YoY, with the decline widening from 6.1% in January-July to about 7.5%, while August's YoY decline approached 18%. Compared with the full-year 2025 total of 2.016 million mt, cumulative imports in the first eight months of this year were equivalent to only 61.7% of last year's total.
By source country, August imports showed a pattern of "Southeast Asia rebounding, Europe and the US diverging." Thailand's aluminum scrap exports to China in August were 34,124.96 mt, up 32.84% MoM but down 21.47% YoY, accounting for 24.1% of total monthly imports, up 2.6 percentage points from 21.5% in July, further consolidating its position as the top source country. In January-August, Thailand's cumulative exports to China were 258,500 mt, accounting for 20.8%, remaining the only source country with a share above 20%. In addition, by country-level breakdown, Portugal exported 9,754.11 mt of aluminum scrap to China in August, ranking as the fifth-largest source country for the month.
By trade mode, Ordinary Trade imports in August were 120,979.6 mt, up sharply by 35.96% MoM, accounting for 85.3% of total monthly imports, a significant rebound from 74.4% in July. Processing trade with supplied materials was 16,476.4 mt, down 26.62% MoM. Processing trade with imported materials was 3,812.9 mt, down 51.43% MoM. Total processing trade was 20,289.3 mt, down about 33.05% MoM, with its share pulling back to 14.3%. Looking ahead, aluminum scrap imports in September are expected to continue a modest MoM recovery. On one hand, the MoM rebound in August indicates that shipping schedules and deliveries have gradually returned to normal, with Southeast Asian supply replenishment expected to keep increasing. On the other hand, as the traditional September-October peak season deepens, downstream orders are expected to see marginal improvement, which may drive phased restocking demand for imported materials. However, turning positive YoY remains difficult. First, the UAE export ban and EU tariff policies are unlikely to reverse in the short term, and the restricted export pattern for high-quality aluminum scrap from Europe and the Middle East will persist. Second, prices outside China are expected to remain firm, making it difficult for the import loss window to stay open. Third, the September peak season has underperformed expectations, and scrap utilization enterprises are unlikely to change their purchase-as-needed stance in the short term.
Overall, September aluminum scrap imports are likely to edge up MoM but remain in negative YoY growth. If overseas shipping schedules recover further after October and Southeast Asian supply continues to increase, imports may see a phased recovery, but returning to the 2025 level of 2.016 million mt will be challenging. Key areas to monitor include: the subsequent evolution of aluminum scrap export policies in the UAE and EU; changes in the price spread between Chinese and overseas markets and the import profit margin window; the enforcement of China's reverse invoicing policy and the supply of compliant aluminum scrap; and the actual fulfillment of downstream orders during the September-October peak season.
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