[SMM Steel] Turkish Billet Faces Tug-of-War: Domestic Momentum Weakens as Stalled Imports Await Russian Cargo Inflow

Published: Sep 23, 2026 12:40 (GMT+8)

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[Turkey] Driven by recent regional supply tightness following the disruption of Russian flows and residual support from the earlier domestic rebar rally, Turkish domestic steel billet prices advanced by another 10 USD/tonne to 570 USD/tonne EXW. In the Karabük region, small- and medium-sized buyers reliant on imported volumes and local integrated producers are awaiting a major mill to resume taking orders, with significantly higher offer levels widely anticipated. However, as procurement by buyers has largely been completed and finished steel gains have begun to taper off, upward momentum for domestic billet is showing clear signs of fatigue. In contrast, the import market has ground to a complete standstill. Turkish billet import prices held flat at 515 USD/tonne CFR, with no substantive deals concluded during the week. Chinese billet offers held firm at 460–465 USD/tonne FOB; however, with late-October rolling slots closed due to production and logistical slowdowns ahead of the Golden Week holidays, overseas buyers showed little appetite to chase higher prices for November shipments. An Indonesian mill also trimmed its November offer slightly to 478 USD/tonne FOB. Meanwhile, market expectations regarding the return of Russian supply are heating up. Although transit and logistics costs to Turkey remain considerably higher than the traditional Black Sea route, Russian mills may be forced to accept squeezed margins to defend export volumes. Caught between the potential return of Russian materials and cooling domestic demand expectations, Turkish buyers have broadly adopted a wait-and-see stance.

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