[SMM Nickel Midday Review] Nickel prices rose sharply on September 23, with production cuts at a nickel pig iron plant in Indonesia's IMIP industrial park

Published: Sep 23, 2026 11:47 (GMT+8)

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SMM Nickel, September 23:

Macro and market news:

(1) US-Iran diplomatic contacts have clearly warmed, with oil prices falling below $90. Trump threatened to "annihilate" Iran at the UN General Assembly while revealing that his team held a "very good" three-hour meeting with Iranian officials, with a peace deal expected after the midterm elections. Iran said that if the US lifts military pressure and port blockades, it will reopen the Strait of Hormuz within seven days, and the Iranian delegation has been fully authorized to push for the resumption of diplomatic contacts. Overnight, WTI fell 2.73% to $89.85/barrel, and Brent fell 1.59% to $94.71.

(2) Saudi supply channels have been restored. The east-west crude pipeline that was shut down after the attack has been restarted, and the Red Sea port of Yanbu has resumed crude exports. Asian refiners have received informal assurances from Saudi Arabia that they can soon lift crude from Yanbu, and the previously expected supply gap caused by hindered transportation has been revised, with the geopolitical premium rapidly fading.

(3) According to SMM, RKEF NPI plants in Indonesia's IMIP industrial park began production cuts today, with some production lines currently running at loads reduced by about 30%-40% compared with previous levels. Market feedback indicates that due to El Nino, local rainfall has been low, reducing water supply for equipment cooling and protection. If the current load level persists for half a month, it is expected to affect high-grade NPI production by about 50,000-70,000 mt in physical content, and the actual operating load will continue to be dynamically adjusted based on weather and water supply conditions.

Spot market:
On September 23, the average price of SMM #1 refined nickel was 127,900 yuan/mt, up 1,750 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. In terms of spot premiums, the average premium for Jinchuan #1 refined nickel was 3,750 yuan/mt, down 100 yuan/mt from the previous trading day, while mainstream domestic brands of electrodeposited nickel were in the range of 0-500 yuan/mt.

Futures market:
The most-traded SHFE nickel contract (2610) opened higher and moved higher in early trading, closing the morning session at 125,760 yuan/mt, up 1.24%.

Short-term outlook:
Falling oil prices have eased rate hike pressure, and risk appetite on the macro front has clearly recovered. SHFE nickel's own fundamentals are also supported by NPI production cuts, so today's session saw gains on reduced positions. However, nickel's high inventory and weak demand pattern remain unchanged, and before a substantive turnaround in supply, the rebound is expected to be limited in height. In the short term, the most-traded SHFE nickel contract is expected to trade in the range of 124,000-128,000 yuan/mt.

Data Source Statement: Except for publicly available information, all other data are processed by SMM based on publicly available information, market communication, and relying on SMM's internal database model. They are for reference only and do not constitute decision-making recommendations.

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