[SMM Silicon-based PV Morning Meeting Summary] Pre-holiday stockpiling begins, silicon chain holds prices firm amid stalemate

SMM, September 23:

Silicon coal:

Prices: This week, silicon coal prices in major producing regions remained largely stable. Xinjiang non-caking silicon coal was at 900-950 yuan/mt, Xinjiang silicon coal at 1,300-1,350 yuan/mt, Shaanxi silicon coal at around 950 yuan/mt, Gansu silicon coal (blended) at 1,410 yuan/mt, and Gansu silicon coal (granular) at 1,460 yuan/mt.

Supply: The tight supply of raw coal has not yet fully eased, and with winter heating demand approaching, silicon coal still has cost support recently.

Demand: Silicon coal prices rose in late August and early September, and combined with higher trucking freight rates, raw material production costs for silicon enterprises increased.

Silicon metal:

Prices: Yesterday, SMM oxygen-blown #553 silicon in east China was at around 9,400 yuan/mt, and #441 silicon was at around 9,500 yuan/mt. Silicon metal prices have been in a stagnant consolidation recently. Silicon suppliers held firm offers, and higher freight rates strengthened spot-futures price spread quotes in Tianjin, east China, and other regions. Some silicon suppliers raised quotes slightly WoW, while downstream buyers made pre-holiday purchases on an as-needed basis.

Production: In September, operating rates at different silicon enterprises moved in both directions. Some silicon enterprises in Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, Gansu, and Xinjiang increased production, but overall, the reductions were larger. September silicon metal production is expected to continue its downtrend. In October, electricity prices in Sichuan and Yunnan will edge up from September, raising production costs and reducing willingness to produce. Operating rates at silicon enterprises in Sichuan and Yunnan are expected to decline MoM in October.

Inventory: SMM data showed that as of September 17, total social inventory of silicon metal in major regions stood at 486,000 mt, down 4,000 mt WoW. (Excluding Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, Gansu, and other regions).

Silicone:

Prices:

  DMC: Quotes yesterday were 14,400-14,800 yuan/mt, with an average price of around 14,600 yuan/mt. During the week, a few monomer producers lowered DMC offers to 14,500 yuan/mt, while most other monomer producers kept their existing offers, showing strong willingness to hold prices firm before the holiday. However, downstream players were bearish on post-holiday prices and purchased mainly on a rigid-demand basis, with relatively conservative pre-holiday stockpiling.

  D4: Quotes yesterday were 14,700-15,200 yuan/mt, with an average price of around 14,950 yuan/mt.

  107 silicone rubber: Quotes yesterday were 14,500-14,700 yuan/mt, with an average price of around 14,600 yuan/mt.

  Raw rubber: Quotes yesterday were 15,400-15,700 yuan/mt, with an average price of around 15,500 yuan/mt.

  Silicone oil: Quotes yesterday were 15,800-15,900 yuan/mt, with an average price of around 15,850 yuan/mt.

Production: Monomer facilities in north China, central China, and other producing regions continued to run at reduced loads, while other monomer producers maintained normal operations. The industry-wide operating rate stayed at around 60%. The resumption of a 150,000 mt facility in Shandong was postponed, limiting near-term supply growth. Most monomer producers currently have relatively sufficient pre-sale orders.

Inventory: Monomer producer inventories are at mid-to-low levels for the year, and spot supply in the market is relatively tight.  

Polysilicon:

Prices: N-type recharging polysilicon was quoted at 39.1-42.7 yuan/kg. Producer quotes remained relatively stable, with very few market transactions. Production cut meetings led some producers to expect a slight upward shift in the price center, but downstream acceptance was relatively limited.

Production: September polysilicon production was around 110,000-120,000 mt, mainly due to production resumptions at some enterprises. Some bases have expectations for production cuts in the second half of the month, and in October, some bases will continue cutting production, so polysilicon output will decline.

Inventory: Upstream inventory continued to accumulate. Some traders purchased some cargoes, while downstream procurement volumes were relatively small.

Wafers:

Prices: Market prices were 0.994-1.002 yuan/piece for 18X wafers, 1.026-1.044 yuan/piece for 210RN wafers, and 1.119-1.145 yuan/piece for 210N wafers. The wafer market was generally stable. Centralized project tenders continued to advance recently, and 210N demand may see a phased release. With current prices at relatively low levels, marginal demand improvement could provide some support to prices. Going forward, focus on centralized project procurement progress and solar cell inventory changes.

Production: According to SMM's latest survey, September wafer production is expected to increase by 1-2 GW MoM, with supply edging up.

Inventory: Inventory destocking was relatively slow, and inventory levels still showed a slight uptrend.

High-purity quartz sand:  

Prices: Currently, domestic inner-layer sand prices are 40,000-47,000 yuan/mt, middle-layer sand prices are 21,000-24,000 yuan/mt, outer-layer sand prices are 12,500-18,000 yuan/mt, and imported high-purity quartz sand prices are 50,000-53,500 yuan/mt. 33-inch quartz crucibles are priced at 5,400-5,700 yuan/piece, and 36-inch quartz crucibles at 6,450-6,600 yuan/piece. Quartz sand prices have been stable recently, and with cost support, fluctuations are expected to be relatively small going forward. For crucibles, wafer procurement volumes declined slightly recently, and negotiations were mainly about pushing for lower prices. Some small crucible enterprises lowered prices recently and focused on shipments, but leading crucible producers held prices firm.

Production: Recently, domestic quartz sand producers have largely maintained stable operating rates, but some enterprises have begun shifting output to sectors such as lighting, reducing supply for crucible-use sand.

Inventory: Quartz sand producer inventory levels remained high recently, and crucible producers also actively sold previously stockpiled sand. In the short term, market quartz sand inventory is expected to begin circulating.