Wafer Prices Hold Steady, Solar Cell Prices Find Support Before Holiday, Film Price Hikes Take Effect [SMM Silicon-Based PV Morning Meeting Summary]

SMM, September 22:

Wafer

prices: Market prices for 18X wafers are 0.994-1.002 yuan/piece, 210RN wafers are 1.026-1.044 yuan/piece, and 210N wafers are 1.119-1.145 yuan/piece. PV wafer prices remained broadly stable, with mainstream enterprises yet to make notable price adjustments. As the National Day holiday approaches, some enterprises may see pre-holiday stockpiling demand, providing phased support for wafer prices. Cost side, the market continued to watch the trajectory of actual polysilicon transaction prices, with cost support yet to be confirmed.

Production: According to SMM's latest survey, September wafer production is expected to increase by 1-2 GW MoM, with supply edging up slightly.

Inventory: Wafer inventory drawdown remained relatively slow, with inventory levels still on a slight uptrend.

Solar cell

prices: Solar cell prices were stable for 183 and 210R today, while 210N edged up. The 183 price range held at 0.298-0.301 Yuan/W; the 210R price range was 0.305-0.314 Yuan/W, with no notable movement in quotes today; the 210N range shifted up to 0.288-0.295 Yuan/W, as pre-National Day stockpiling by module makers drove a slight pickup in demand. Current stockpiling demand provided phased support for futures, but its sustainability remains to be seen. Short-term prices are expected to stay stable-to-firm, with attention on the pace of pre-holiday stockpiling and price elasticity under the tight balance for 210R.

Production: Industry-wide production schedules pulled back slightly in September. Growth contributed by technologically transformed lines at specialized solar cell plants was offset by voluntary production cuts at large integrated makers amid weakening demand and maintenance-related reductions at some mainstream plants, leaving overall supply down slightly MoM.

Inventory: Solar cell inventory declined this week. Export orders for 210R continued, leaving producers with relatively tight inventory; 210N saw a slight demand pickup driven by pre-holiday stockpiling at some module makers, easing inventory pressure; 183 demand remained mediocre, with limited inventory drawdown. Stockpiling demand brought an initial inflection point in inventory, but whether demand can persist after the National Day holiday is key, with the risk of inventory buildup returning after stockpiling is exhausted.

PV film

prices

PV-grade EVA:

Current mainstream spot transaction prices for domestic PV-grade EVA resin are 10,500-10,800 yuan/mt, while trader quotes have risen to 11,000 yuan/mt, further confirming earlier bullish expectations. Cost side, although crude oil prices pulled back, ethylene and vinyl acetate prices remained at relatively high levels, sustaining cost support for EVA resin; in terms of supply, spot cargo was tight, and traders held prices firm with strong sentiment. In the short term, cost and supply sides continue to support the market, and PV-grade EVA prices are expected to hold up well.

PV film:

Currently, 420g transparent EVA film is priced at 5.63-5.71 yuan/m², and 380g EPE film at 5.47-5.55 yuan/m². This round of film price increases has largely been implemented. Higher EVA prices have further strengthened cost support for film, while downstream module makers, despite facing some cost pressure, remain relatively passive in price negotiations due to rigid mid-month supply guarantee requirements. Going forward, close attention should be paid to month-end monthly pricing results and the further impact of EVA price changes on film cost side.

Production: This week, some previously idled units resumed production, and PV-grade EVA production rebounded somewhat; film production schedules in September fluctuated only slightly MoM from August.

Inventory: Petrochemical plant inventories are currently at relatively low levels, while film makers' inventories remain within a reasonable range.