SMM High-Grade NPI Sentiment Factor Decreases to 1.78 Amid Ongoing Market Tug-of-War

[SMM Nickel Flash] September 21 - According to SMM, due to the El Niño phenomenon, Indonesia has experienced drought conditions, with local production water supply under pressure and transportation conditions disrupted. Nickel pig iron production at Indonesia's IMIP industrial park may be affected in October, though specific production plans have not yet been clarified. Given current market inventory levels, the impact on the overall supply-demand pattern is expected to be limited in the short term. SMM will continue to monitor changes in water supply and production operations at the park.

The following table shows the ferrous and nonferrous metals movement on the SHFE and DCE on 21 Sep , 2026

In terms of prices, Indonesian nickel ore CIF average prices remained at the latest assessed levels: 1.2% Ni: CIF average price at $27/wmt 1.4% Ni: CIF average price at $51.8/wmt 1.5% Ni: CIF average price at $58.5/wmt 1.6% Ni: CIF average price at $63.4/wmt Indonesia Policy & Market Update — September 21, 2026 The Indonesian nickel ore market remains cautious as market participants continue to monitor the progress of supplementary RKAB approvals. Additional approvals are gradually entering the market, but the total volume of supplementary quota has yet to be officially released. PT Vale Indonesia is also awaiting approval for additional RKAB quota for its operations, with the company having previously indicated that its initial allocation covered only part of its requested volume. Meanwhile, the revised nickel ore HPM formula, effective September 15, has lowered the HPM for low-grade limonite. The 1.2% Ni limonite HPM has fallen to $24.89/wmt, significantly below current market prices. Market attention is now focused on how additional RKAB supply and HPAL demand will affect limonite pricing and whether market prices will gradually move closer to the new HPM level. Overall, RKAB approvals, the release of additional quota and the response of HPAL and RKEF buyers remain the key factors to watch for the Indonesian nickel ore market in the near term.