Easing inflation coupled with tight supply, copper prices maintain a fluctuating upward trend [SMM Copper Morning Comment]

SMM News on September 21: Last Friday night, LME copper opened at $14,502/mt, drifted lower in early trading to a low of $14,480.5/mt, then drifted higher and touched a high of $14,551/mt near the close, and finally settled at $14,563/mt, up 0.62%. Trading volume rose to 21,000 lots, and open interest rose to 265,000 lots, an increase of 2,021 lots from the previous trading day, indicating bulls adding positions. Last Friday night, the most-traded SHFE copper 2610 contract opened at 109,840 yuan/mt, drifted higher in early trading to a high of 109,950 yuan/mt, then its center gradually moved lower and dipped to 109,620 yuan/mt, and finally settled at 109,900 yuan/mt, up 0.34%. Trading volume rose to 17,200 lots, and open interest rose to 151,100 lots, down 766 lots from the previous trading day, indicating bears cutting positions. On the macro front, Trump expressed an open attitude toward meeting Iran’s president at the UN General Assembly, while also saying he was considering a full military action against Iran; Qatar said the US hoped to reach an agreement, and the Houthis agreed not to fight the US. Trump was set to speak at the UN General Assembly on Tuesday, Iran’s president on Wednesday; Netanyahu’s US visit was unusually brief, and Turkey may provide defense assistance to Saudi Arabia. A pullback in crude oil eased inflation expectations, providing support for copper prices. On the fundamentals, supply side, available cargoes were tight, with suppliers holding prices firm and holding back from selling, keeping overall supply tight; demand side, purchasing sentiment rebounded sharply MoM, downstream purchase willingness improved, but just-in-time procurement still dominated, with limited acceptance of high premiums. Overall, copper prices are expected to drift higher today.