SMM Tin Morning Brief | SHFE Tin Rallies Overnight to 407,000, Consolidates After US Fed's 25bp Hike — Monday, September 21, 2026
1. FuturesLME: LME 3M tin closed at $53,460/mt on Sep 18, +460 (+0.87%). SHFE daytime session: The most-traded SHFE tin SN2610 contract opened at 405,680 / closed at 407,490 / high 408,150 / low 402,800 on Sep 18; prior settlement 399,630; +7,860 (+1.97%); open interest 28,686 lots (-2,132); volume 83,557 lots. SHFE night session: The Sep 18 night session (early morning Sep 19) closed at 407,877, +3,410 (+0.84%); high 409,510 / low 406,400.
2. SpotSMM #1 tin on Sep 18: 403,600-405,700, average 404,650 (+5,250). Premiums (small-brand / Yunzi / Yunnan Tin): YT (small-brand) at +1,000 against the October contract, Yunzi +1,400, Yunnan Tin +1,800.
3. Three-Dimensional InventoryLME: 4,855 mt (-110), canceled warrants at 23.27%. SHFE: 4,979 mt (-242), Shanghai 1,360 / Guangdong 3,381 / Jiangsu 238. China social inventory: 8,968 mt in major markets, -1,177 (-11.6%) from Sep 11, reversing the prior streak of inventory buildup.
4. MacroThe US Fed unanimously approved a 25bp rate hike on Sep 17, lifting the federal funds rate to 3.75%-4.00%, with the dot plot suggesting one more hike may come within the year. The US dollar index closed at 99.945 (-0.01) on Sep 18; the 10-year US Treasury yield fell 0.32% on Sep 18; Brent crude oil closed at $104.09/bbl on Sep 17.
5. FundamentalsMine supply: The rainy season in Myanmar's Wa State is drawing to a close, but drainage and explosives issues at mining areas are constraining ore output, with production resumptions progressing slower than expected. In July, tin concentrate imports from Myanmar totaled 4,569 mt in physical content (1,077 mt in metal content, -23% MoM), with the resumption ceiling locked at 40%-50% of pre-ban levels. In August, tin ingot transactions on Indonesia's two major exchanges reached 3,610 mt (+3.00% MoM / +30.09% YoY), with cumulative Jan-Aug volume down 18.17% YoY. The Bisie mine in the DRC remains stable for now, though regional security risks still warrant monitoring. The Yinman Mining beneficiation plant resumed production on Sep 3. Smelting: Yunnan 40% tin concentrate TCs stood at 18,000 yuan/mt Sn (flat WoW). The combined weekly operating rate across the two provinces was 68.14%, with Yunnan rising above 90% and Jiangxi holding steady at low levels. Demand: The August operating rate at solder enterprises was 72.8% (flat MoM), with solder production at approximately 6,900 mt. In August, integrated circuits grew 20.6% and NEVs grew 21.9%, supporting tin demand from semiconductors and automotive electronics; smartphones fell 22.3% and solar cells fell 12.9%, with PV welding strip, consumer electronics, and tinplate yet to fully strengthen. AI server and advanced packaging medium and long-term growth is clear, but near-term volume remains limited.
VI. Spot MarketOn September 18, SHFE tin closed the daytime session at 407,490 (+1.97%), then rose further in the night session to 407,877. China's social inventory destocked by 1,177 mt on the week. After the rate hike landed, macro pressure eased in phases. Spot discounts persisted, and downstream users continued to purchase as needed. The SHFE/LME price ratio stood at about 7.62, with the import window still under pressure. SHFE tin is expected to move sideways in the 400,000-410,000 yuan/mt range today, with attention on whether the 410,000 level can be effectively broken.
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