August lead concentrate imports pulled back, with limited recovery expected in September [SMM Analysis]

SMM, September 20:

According to the latest customs data, lead concentrates imports in August 2026 stood at 87,000 mt in physical content, down 28,200 mt in physical content or 24.44% MoM and down 35.35% YoY. Cumulative lead concentrates imports from January to August reached 906,300 mt in physical content, down 2.3% YoY.

By country, the top three sources of lead concentrate imports in August were Russia (15,300 mt in physical content, 17.61%), Peru (13,900 mt in physical content, 15.95%), and Australia (10,500 mt in physical content, 12.03%). Lead concentrate imports fell sharply in August. By country, imports from Peru and Oman dropped significantly due to rain from El Niño, which hindered road transportation and caused a temporary mismatch in shipment pace, while imports from Australia rose notably. From an import profit margin perspective, the SHFE/LME lead price ratio recovered somewhat in August as the domestic market outperformed overseas markets, and the import loss for lead concentrates narrowed slightly to around -200 yuan/mt. The import window remained closed. Meanwhile, domestic primary lead smelters entered a concentrated maintenance cycle in August, reducing demand for ore and causing a sharp decline in lead concentrate imports.

Entering September, lead concentrate imports are expected to increase MoM, but the growth will be limited. The main reasons are that, on one hand, previously delayed shipments are arriving at ports; on the other hand, the import ratio continues to recover, narrowing the import losses for lead concentrates. Some primary lead smelters in China that underwent maintenance in August are gradually resuming operations in late September, increasing demand for ore. However, although the domestic and international ratios have recovered, they remain in a loss-making state, and the overall pattern is expected to remain dominated by long-term contracts.

Data source statement: Except for publicly available information, all other data are processed by SMM based on public information, market communication, and SMM's internal database models, and are for reference only, not constituting decision-making advice.