From Panic Selling to Holding Back: Supplier Sentiment Reverses as Lead Prices Rebound [SMM Scrap Battery Weekly Review]

SMM News on September 18:

This week, scrap battery prices in China were basically stable, with limited overall fluctuations. Early in the week, lead prices fell rapidly, and smelters generally lowered purchase prices by 50-100 yuan/mt; suppliers panicked and sold off, and scrap battery raw materials were delivered to plants in a concentrated manner. By mid-week, lead prices stabilized, panic-driven shipments ebbed, and arrivals returned to a steady level. Toward the end of the week, after the US Fed’s rate hike was confirmed, lead prices rebounded and regained the 16,000 level; mainstream quotations for scrap batteries stabilized, price-protected smelters extended their price protection, with only a few raising prices by 50-100 yuan/mt. Suppliers’ willingness to sell diverged, with about half shifting to holding back from selling and waiting on the sidelines. Overall, smelter arrivals this week showed a pattern of “an early-week pulse, returning to steady after mid-week.” In addition, after raw materials were delivered to plants in a concentrated manner, many smelters’ raw material inventory was already full, and the pace of purchasing and price adjustments slowed down. Recyclers maintained a fast-in, fast-out buying and selling model from early to mid-week; after the late-week rebound in lead prices, sentiment diverged, with about half shifting to holding back from selling and waiting on the sidelines for follow-up gains. Some downstream battery plants had already completed concentrated stockpiling for the two holidays at low lead prices by mid-week. In the short term, scrap battery prices are expected to stabilize along with lead prices, with mainstream levels remaining stable or seeing a slight follow-up increase. Key factors to watch include the sustainability of the lead price rebound, smelters’ purchasing and price adjustments after inventory digestion, the extent of supply release amid recyclers holding back from selling, and the pace of downstream battery plants’ winter stockpiling start-up.