SMM, September 18:
During the day, the SHFE lead 2610 contract carried forward the strength from the night session, opening the daytime session at 16,310 yuan/mt. After the open, it quickly rallied to an intraday high of 16,425 yuan/mt, then retreated after the rapid rise, consolidating at highs near 16,320 yuan/mt in the afternoon, and finally closed at 16,320 yuan/mt, up 195 yuan/mt or 1.21% from the previous trading day's closing price. Total trading volume for the day was 84,781 lots, with open interest at 40,137 lots, a daily decrease of 11,928 lots. The daily candlestick closed as a bullish candlestick with an upper shadow. During the day, it briefly pierced the upper Bollinger Band, hitting a new rebound high in nearly a month, but failed to hold above the upper band. The daily KDJ formed a golden cross and continued upward, with the J value rising to 81.51, approaching overbought territory. On the spot fundamentals side, SHFE lead continued its strong trend, with suppliers maintaining firm price-holding sentiment. Circulating supply in the spot market was tight, but downstream enterprises showed strong wait-and-see sentiment. Aside from a small portion of just-in-time procurement, most activity focused on digesting inventories, leaving the spot order market thin on both sides.
In the short term, SHFE lead is expected to consolidate on a strong note above the 16,000 yuan/mt level, with possible fluctuations near the previous high and the upper Bollinger Band. Attention can be paid to whether the futures price can break through the upper Bollinger Band with expanding volume and hold above it, the volume-price performance after the SHFE lead 2611 contract takes over, and the tug-of-war between suppliers holding prices firm amid high premiums and downstream purchase willingness.
Data source statement: Except for publicly available information, all other data are processed by SMM based on public information, market communication, and SMM's internal database models, and are for reference only, not constituting decision-making advice.
