Bottom prices show strong resistance to declines; pre-holiday stockpiling demand gradually released

Published: Sep 18, 2026 15:35

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This week, rebar prices consolidated on a subdued note. Mid-week, sentiment-driven buying lifted prices in phases, but later, news of coking coal and coke supply guarantees pushed prices back down.

This week, rebar prices consolidated on a subdued note. Mid-week, sentiment-driven buying lifted prices in phases, but later, news of coking coal and coke supply guarantees pushed prices back down. On the supply side, losses on production at blast furnace steel mills intensified. Some mills, judging construction steel margins to be inferior to those of HRC, recently halted construction steel output and switched to HRC production, causing construction steel production to fall further this week. EAF steel mills remained marginally profitable, with scrap procurement pressure easing from earlier levels. Some producers further raised operating hours, but losses during peak-hour power periods were substantial, so they maintained production during off-peak and shoulder hours, leaving limited room for output growth. On the demand side, performance diverged by region. In south China, some downstream project demand was released ahead of the National Day holiday, and overall transaction volumes were decent. However, projects in central and northern regions largely purchased as needed, with few new projects and mostly ongoing ones, so overall demand underperformed south China. On the inventory front, mill inventories and social inventories continued to draw down this week, with the pace of destocking accelerating as pre-holiday stockpiling demand arrived early. According to feedback, raw material news recently weighed on market sentiment. Although prices weakened, the extent of the decline was relatively small, and spot prices overall showed strong resistance to declines. Looking ahead, rebar fundamentals have improved markedly from earlier, and with a supply-demand mismatch in place, spot prices have solid support at the bottom. Next week, pre-holiday stockpiling demand will be largely released, and spot prices may still have room to rise, though raw material news disruptions still warrant attention.

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