[SMM Türkiye Weekly Review] Scrap Nears 400 USD Mark; Cost-Push Drives Domestic Premium and Import Arbitrage

Published: Sep 18, 2026 15:31
Propelled by robust scrap costs, the Turkish long and flat steel markets extended their upward trajectory this week, accompanied by significantly widening domestic premiums. In the long products segment, domestic rebar prices surged by a cumulative 30 USD/tonne over two weeks, climbing to 625–630 USD/tonne EXW (excl. VAT). After securing nearly 10,000 tonnes of orders at 625 USD/tonne EXW, an Iskenderun mill rapidly hiked offers to 630–635 USD/tonne EXW, while localized deals in Marmara even printed as high as 660 USD/tonne EXW. However, export quotes only edged up to 605 USD/tonne FOB, establishing a 20 USD/tonne domestic premium over exports. The price inversion in flat products was even more extreme: domestic HRC offers were raised to 600–620 USD/tonne EXW and exports to 615–620 USD/tonne FOB, yet import prices held steady at 550 USD/tonne CFR. This massive 65–70 USD/tonne domestic-import spread blew the import arbitrage window wide open, prompting Turkish buyers to aggressively pivot toward Chinese resources; notably, Turkish destinations featured prominently in Chinese traders' large export bookings this week. This current rally remains entirely driven by cost-push factors—with scrap approaching 400 USD/tonne CFR amid expected seasonal collection slowdowns—rather than any improvement in end-user demand. On semi-finished trade flows, Türkiye's July slab imports doubled month-on-month to 315,200 tonnes (with Russia accounting for over half). Cumulative billet imports for January–July reached 3 million tonnes (+20.5% YoY), highlighting a 90.2% surge in Chinese origins to 700,000 tonnes. Looking ahead to next week, scrap costs will continue to support firm mill pricing, but the critical focus will be whether these elevated quotes can secure sustained transactional volume.

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