Weekly lithium carbonate market summary: From 9.14 to 9.17, spot lithium carbonate prices fell first and then rose, drifting lower overall [SMM weekly review]

This week, spot lithium carbonate prices showed a pattern of falling first and then rising, with an overall downward drift. The futures market swung wildly, with the most-traded 2701 contract price range dropping sharply from 132,000-135,000 yuan/mt at the start of the week to 124,000-131,900 yuan/mt, hitting a mid-week low of 124,000 yuan/mt before rebounding to 131,300 yuan/mt over the weekend. Open interest rose first and then fell, reflecting an intense tug-of-war between longs and shorts.

Market trading showed a pattern of "active downstream dip-buying and stockpiling, while upstream held prices firm and held back from selling." On the upstream lithium chemical plant side, sentiment to hold spot order prices firm and hold back from selling persisted. Some lithium chemical plants sold spot orders at the website's monthly average price, while some high-priced quotes softened slightly. Normal long-term contract shipments led to a slight inventory drawdown. On the downstream material plant and battery cell manufacturer side, this period coincided with pre-holiday stockpiling for September and the National Day holiday. The strategy of dip-buying and stockpiling continued, with spot order purchasing becoming increasingly active. However, as prices fell to new lows, a small number of material plants turned cautious, with spot order purchase intentions below 125,000 yuan/mt. Overall, market inquiries and actual transactions remained active.

Spot premiums shifted from discounts to premiums. This week, spot lithium carbonate premiums in the trade market mainly stayed between 0 and 2,000 yuan/mt, strengthening significantly from the previous period. Clear premiums emerged at certain times, reflecting strong price resilience in the spot market near 125,000 yuan/mt and highlighting a tight spot circulation pattern.

On the supply side, production gradually rebounded, mainly driven by maintenance-driven production resumptions at salt lake operations. This week, China's lithium carbonate production gradually rebounded as salt lake operations resumed production after maintenance, while production at other raw material sources remained largely stable. Looking at inventory changes: upstream lithium chemical plants showed weak sentiment toward spot order shipments, with a clear stance of holding prices firm and holding back from selling. Normal long-term contract shipments led to a slight inventory drawdown. Downstream material plants and battery cell manufacturers were active in spot order purchasing, buying the dip to stockpile, resulting in inventory accumulation. In the trader segment, as upstream shipment pace slowed noticeably, purchasing became more difficult. Downstream continued aggressive dip-buying for stockpiling, leading to a sharp inventory drawdown in this segment.

Looking ahead, lithium carbonate prices are expected to maintain a consolidating trend in the short term, with strong support near 125,000 yuan/mt. On the supply side, production resumptions at salt lake operations after maintenance bring marginal growth, but overall supply changes remain limited. On the demand side, downstream is in the September-October and National Day holiday stockpiling period, with strong willingness to purchase and stockpile near 125,000 yuan/mt, forming clear bottom support for prices. The current sharp strengthening of spot premiums and the sharp inventory drawdown among traders reflect tight spot circulation, providing strong support for prices. Going forward, close attention should still be paid to the pace of warrant drawdowns, the sustainability of downstream stockpiling pace, changes in upstream shipment pace, and the further direction of spot premiums.