Thursday, September 17, 2026
Futures: Overnight, LME copper opened at $14,236/mt, rose to an intraday high of $14,263.5/mt, then consolidated lower to $14,181 before rallying again in late trading to close at $14,250/mt, up 0.96%. Trading volume reached 16,000 lots, and open interest stood at 261,000 lots, down 5,780 lots from the previous trading day, reflecting short covering. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE copper 2610 contract opened at 108,020 yuan/mt, hit an intraday high of 108,170 yuan/mt, then pulled back to an intraday low of 107,770 yuan/mt before closing at 107,960 yuan/mt, up 0.66%. Trading volume reached 19,000 lots, and open interest stood at 163,000 lots, down 2,822 lots from the previous trading day, reflecting short covering.
[SMM Copper Morning Meeting Summary] News:
(1) Data released by Peru's central bank showed that in July 2026, Peru exported 231,900 mt of copper, 1,400 mt of tin, 657,900 oz of gold, 600,000 oz of refined silver, 167,200 mt of lead, and 88,300 mt of zinc.
Spot:
(1) Shanghai: On September 16, SMM #1 copper cathode spot premiums against the SHFE copper 2609 contract were quoted at 580-710 yuan/mt, with an average of 645 yuan/mt, up 85 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. In early trading, the SHFE copper 2609 contract opened at 107,250 yuan/mt, edged down to 107,100 yuan/mt, then began to rise. After a slight correction, the uptrend remained intact, with an intraday high of 107,700 yuan/mt and a closing price of 107,610 yuan/mt. The backwardation between the front-month and next-month contracts was 340-400 yuan/mt, and the import profit margin for SHFE copper against the 2609 contract was between a loss of 280 yuan/mt and a loss of 180 yuan/mt. During the day, selling sentiment for copper cathode in Shanghai was 2.78, up 0.03 MoM, and buying sentiment was 2.65, up 0.17 MoM. Historical data can be queried in the database. Looking ahead to today, supply side, some imported copper may arrive in large volumes in the near term, but it will still take time from vessel arrival, customs clearance, and warehouse entry to actual inflow into the spot market, making it difficult to have a material impact in the short term. Currently, supply of major circulating brands in Shanghai remains tight, with mainstream standard-quality copper and high-quality copper staying scarce, and suppliers remain inclined to hold prices firm. Demand side, copper prices continue to fluctuate at highs, and downstream enterprises are increasingly wary of high prices, with purchases mostly limited to rigid demand and weak appetite for high premiums. In addition, the elevated backwardation between the front-month and next-month contracts also provides some support to spot premiums. Overall, spot premiums are expected to stay high today or edge down slightly, with focus on the actual arrival pace of imported copper and changes in downstream buying sentiment.
(2) Guangdong: On September 16, Guangdong #1 copper cathode spot prices against the front-month contract: high-quality copper was quoted at a premium of 600 yuan/mt, up 480 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; standard-quality copper was quoted at a premium of 480 yuan/mt, up 580 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; SX-EW copper was quoted at a premium of 420 yuan/mt, up 530 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The average price of Guangdong #1 copper cathode was 107,815 yuan/mt, down 565 yuan/mt from the previous trading day, and the average price of SX-EW copper was 108,765 yuan/mt, down 600 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. In Guangdong, copper cathode purchase willingness was 2.51, up 0.08 from the previous trading day, and selling willingness was 2.75, up 0.05 from the previous trading day (historical data can be queried in the database). Overall, spot premiums rose sharply after delivery, but downstream users did not chase higher prices for purchases, and overall trading remained mediocre.
(3) Imported copper: On September 16, the average warrant price rose $8/mt from the previous trading day to $118/mt (price range: $111-125/mt); the average B/L price rose $5/mt from the previous trading day to $115/mt (price range: $110-120/mt); the average price of EQ copper (CIF B/L) rose $5/mt from the previous trading day to $70/mt (price range: $60-70/mt), with quotes referencing cargoes arriving from September to mid-October.
(4) Secondary copper: On September 16 at 11:30, the futures closing price was 107,610 yuan/mt, up 290 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The average spot premium was 645 yuan/mt, up 570 yuan/mt MoM from the previous trading day. Secondary copper raw material prices rose 300 yuan/mt MoM. The secondary copper raw material selling sentiment index rose to 2.67, and the purchase sentiment index rose to 1.95. The price difference between copper cathode and copper scrap was 2,221 yuan/mt, up 96 yuan/mt MoM. The price difference between copper cathode rod and secondary copper rod was 860 yuan/mt. According to the SMM survey, after the contract rollover, copper futures prices stopped falling and stabilized. Although secondary copper rod enterprises planned to purchase copper scrap for stocking demand, under the current conditions of low copper prices and low social inventory, copper scrap suppliers generally held prices firm when selling, resulting in high raw material prices. Finished rod quotes from secondary copper rod enterprises also showed premiums. End-user purchase willingness was weak, and overall transactions across the upstream and downstream market were mediocre.
Prices: On the macro front, the US Fed unanimously approved a 25 bp interest rate hike, raising the federal funds rate target range to 3.75%-4%, and the dot plot showed another hike may occur within the year. Trump urged the Fed to quickly cut interest rates to 1% or below and again raised the threat of "cutting off trade." On the geopolitical front, the Middle East situation escalated again, with Saudi Arabia expanding security alerts to Mecca and Jeddah, boosting market risk-aversion sentiment. On the fundamentals side, although some imported copper is expected to arrive at ports in concentrated volumes later on the supply side, short-term supply growth is limited due to shipping schedules, customs clearance, and warehousing, and the spot market remains tight. On the demand side, as copper prices pulled back, downstream purchase willingness recovered, and restocking demand was released to some extent. Overall, copper prices are expected to edge up today.
[The information provided is for reference only. This article does not constitute direct advice for investment research decisions. Clients should make decisions cautiously and not use this as a replacement for their own independent judgment. Any decisions made by clients have no relation to SMM.]
US Fed rate hike lands, risk aversion heats up, copper prices edge up [SMM Copper Morning Meeting Minutes]
SMM Morning Meeting Summary: Overnight, LME copper opened at $14,236/mt, rose to an intraday high of $14,263.5/mt after the open, then consolidated and pulled back to $14,181, before rallying again in late trading to close at $14,250/mt, up 0.96%. Trading volume reached 16,000 lots, and open interest stood at 261,000 lots, down 5,780 lots from the previous trading day, reflecting bear position reductions. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE copper 2610 contract opened at 108,020 yuan/mt, hit an intraday high of 108,170 yuan/mt, then pulled back to an intraday low of 107,770 yuan/mt, and finally closed at 107,960 yuan/mt, up 0.66%. Trading volume reached 19,000 lots, and open interest stood at 163,000 lots, down 2,822 lots from the previous trading day, reflecting bear position reductions.
Data Source Statement: Except for publicly available information, all other data are processed by SMM based on publicly available information, market communication, and relying on SMM's internal database model. They are for reference only and do not constitute decision-making recommendations.
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