SHFE lead stabilizes and closes up 0.60%, awaiting the US Fed rate hike [Lead Futures Brief Comment]

SMM, September 16:

The SHFE lead 2610 contract opened at 15,780 yuan/mt today. After a brief downward drift following the open, it stabilized in a narrow range of 15,780-15,815 yuan/mt before 10:30, then rebounded to a high of 15,890 yuan/mt. In the afternoon, it consolidated at highs, with the price center holding firm into the close, ultimately settling at 15,870 yuan/mt, up 95 yuan/mt or 0.60% from the previous trading day's closing price. Trading volume was approximately 49,000 lots, and open interest stood at 62,280 lots, down 2,913 lots from the previous day. The daily candlestick was a small bullish candle with a lower shadow. SHFE lead reclaimed the 15,800 yuan/mt level and stabilized above the lower Bollinger Band. In the spot market, smelter inventories were sold out, making current-month cargoes hard to source. Suppliers and smelters held prices firm and held back from selling, with premiums rising broadly. However, downstream pre-holiday stockpiling was nearing its end, and transactions turned subdued, which may cap the rebound in futures prices. Tonight, in the early hours of tomorrow, the US Fed's FOMC will announce its interest rate decision. Before the decision, SHFE lead is expected to stage a weak recovery above the lower band and move sideways. Market participants may focus on how the decision transmits to sentiment in the LME base metals complex and the battle for the 16,000 yuan/mt level.

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