[SMM Computing Power Midday Review] 5090 Hong Kong prices see wider discounts, 4090 supply tightens

[Market Overview] The SMM computing power rental price index consolidated overall today, with quotes for all server models and regions remaining unchanged from the previous trading day. On the price collection side, consumer-grade cards showed two opposing signals: Hong Kong 5090 transactions weakened, with the discount range expanding more than twofold within two days; in east China, 4090D units were listed for rent at slightly lower prices, reflecting tightening supply of existing 4090 inventory.

[5090: Hong Kong Discounts Widen, Quotes and Transaction Prices Diverge at an Accelerating Pace] In the Hong Kong market, 5090 cards were quoted at $6,200 per unit, with closing deals becoming notably more difficult. On September 14, market participants reported that discounts of $50–100, or roughly 1%, were required; by September 16, the required discount had widened to $200–300, or 3.2%–4.8%, more than doubling within two days, while actual trading volume continued to decline over the same period. Based on the upper end of the discount range, actual transaction prices were approximately $5,900–6,000, approaching the $6,000 threshold anticipated on September 4. The accelerating divergence between quoted and executable prices is typically a leading signal of a peaking uptrend, while the yuan-denominated channel continued to follow the rally. The two markets have diverged, warranting caution over the lagged risk of price transmission.

[4090: Substitute Specs Fill the Gap, Bottom Rises for Older Models] In east China, 25 RTX 4090D complete units were listed for rent under annual contracts at 6,800 yuan per unit per month, 200–500 yuan below the lower end of the 7,000–7,300 yuan range collected by SMM for 4090 complete units. The lessor reported that liquidity for 4090 servers in the same region has declined and supply has become insufficient. The 4090D is a lower spec than the standard version, and its listing at a slightly lower price indicates that lessees have begun to accept substitute specs. Combined with earlier signs that 4090 resources had peaked and lessors refused to sell at low prices, the bottom of rental prices for older models is rising.

[SMM View] Market participants in the computing power sector have notably different areas of focus: data center developers concentrate on the availability and cost of energy and power infrastructure, server holders and distributors prioritize supply chain stability and delivery certainty, while rental buyers are concerned with deployment timelines and spec compatibility. With these fragmented perspectives, price signals are easily interpreted in conflicting ways—Hong Kong discounts versus yuan-denominated gains, and 4090D substitution versus tightening standard-version supply are all price projections of these differing viewpoints. SMM believes that, given the deep coupling of computing power and electricity, a holistic perspective encompassing both the computing power market and the power market is especially important. This is also the methodological foundation for SMM's parallel advancement of computing power price indices and electricity price research.