Silicon metal prices remain weak due to expectations for polysilicon production cuts, while high-purity quartz sand prices hold steady [SMM Silicon-based PV Morning Meeting Summary]

SMM, September 16:

Silicon coal

prices:

This week, silicon coal prices in major production areas remained largely stable, with slight declines in some regions. Xinjiang non-caking silicon coal was at 900-950 yuan/mt, Xinjiang silicon coal at 1,300-1,350 yuan/mt, and Shaanxi silicon coal at around 950 yuan/mt.

Silicon metal

prices:

Yesterday, SMM east China oxygen-blown #553 silicon was at around 9,400 yuan/mt, and #441 silicon at around 9,500 yuan/mt. Silicon metal prices have been trending weaker recently, mainly affected by expectations for Q4 polysilicon production cuts. As one of the major downstream consumers of silicon metal, polysilicon's operating rate directly impacts silicon metal demand. This has weighed heavily on market sentiment, and with no fresh bullish news recently, prices have been consolidating on a subdued note.

Production:

In September, operating rates varied among silicon enterprises, with some increasing and some decreasing. Some silicon enterprises in Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, Gansu, and Xinjiang ramped up production in September, but overall reductions were larger. Silicon metal production in September is expected to continue its downtrend.

Inventory:

SMM data showed that as of September 10, total social inventory of silicon metal in major regions stood at 490,000 mt, down 2,000 mt WoW (excluding Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, Gansu, and other regions).

Silicone

prices

DMC: Quoted at 14,500-14,900 yuan/mt yesterday, with an average price of around 14,700 yuan/mt. Earlier, driven by consecutive methanol price increases on the cost side, DMC prices rose rapidly in the short term, but downstream acceptance of high prices remained weak, with purchases mainly on a restocking-as-needed basis.

D4: Quoted at 14,700-15,200 yuan/mt yesterday, with an average price of around 14,950 yuan/mt.

107 silicone rubber: Quoted at 14,300-14,700 yuan/mt yesterday, with an average price of around 14,500 yuan/mt.

Raw rubber: Quoted at 15,400-15,700 yuan/mt yesterday, with an average price of around 15,500 yuan/mt.

Silicone oil: Quoted at 15,800-15,900 yuan/mt yesterday, with an average price of around 15,850 yuan/mt.

Production:

The September meeting confirmed that industry-wide production cuts will continue. Monomer facilities in north China, central China, and other production areas maintained reduced operating loads, with some monomer plants under maintenance. The industry's overall operating rate remained at around 60%. Currently, monomer producers have relatively sufficient pre-sale orders.

Inventory:

Industry chain inventory remained at mid-to-low levels for the year, with spot supply relatively tight.

Polysilicon

prices:

N-type recharging polysilicon was quoted at 39-42.7 yuan/kg. Producer quotes remained relatively stable, with very few market transactions. The production cut meeting led some producers to expect a slight upward shift in price center, but downstream acceptance remained limited.

Production

September polysilicon production was around 120,000 mt, mainly driven by production resumptions at some enterprises. Expectations for production cuts in some regions in Q4 may lead to lower output. October production is expected to decline.

Inventory:

Upstream inventory continued to accumulate. Some traders purchased some cargoes, while downstream procurement volume was relatively small.

Wafer

Prices

Market prices for 18X wafers were 1.01-1.034 yuan/piece, 210RN wafers at 1.029-1.03 yuan/piece, and 210N wafers at 1.111-1.132 yuan/piece. At this stage, wafer producers' raw material inventories are relatively sufficient overall. The industry is broadly watching actual polysilicon transaction prices, with procurement remaining cautious. For 210N, prices are already at relatively low levels, producers' willingness to cut prices further is weak, and some top-tier players' quotes have shown some recovery. For 18X, demand outside China has pulled back, and combined with weak domestic demand, market trading activity is insufficient, leaving room for prices to edge down further.

Production

According to SMM's latest survey, September wafer production is expected to increase by 1-2 GW MoM. Supply is edging up slightly, and the supply-demand pattern has not improved significantly yet.

Inventory

Wafer inventory has accumulated slightly recently, and overall inventory pressure remains.

High-purity quartz sand

Prices

Current domestic inner-layer sand prices are 40,000-47,000 yuan/mt, middle-layer sand at 21,000-24,000 yuan/mt, and outer-layer sand at 12,500-18,000 yuan/mt. Imported high-purity quartz sand prices are 50,000-53,500 yuan/mt. 33-inch quartz crucibles are priced at 5,500-5,700 yuan/piece, and 36-inch quartz crucibles at 6,500-6,600 yuan/piece. Prices have been relatively stable recently. After a period of declines earlier, market sentiment to hold prices firm is gradually emerging. Supported by costs, crucible and quartz sand prices are mainly stable for now.

Production

September domestic high-purity quartz sand production schedules are expected to decline about 1% MoM. This week, domestic operating rates remained basically stable, with sand producers mainly producing based on demand. Some cross-sector enterprises saw slight increases in operating rates due to somewhat better semiconductor procurement recently.

Inventory

Sand producers' inventory levels remain high recently, and crucible makers' raw material inventories on hand have not been fully consumed yet. Inventory changes are expected to be relatively small in the short term.