SMM Zinc Morning Briefing, September 15
Futures: Overnight, LME zinc opened at $3,867/mt, initially touched a high of $3,873.5/mt, then drifted lower through the session, hitting a low of $3,766.5/mt near the close before rebounding slightly into the settle, ending down $59/mt, or 1.53%, at $3,804.5/mt. Trading volume fell to 18,287 lots, while open interest rose by 691 lots to 265,000 lots. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE zinc 2611 contract opened at 25,960 yuan/mt, then drifted higher, touching a low of 25,960 yuan/mt in early trading and a high of 26,250 yuan/mt near the close, before settling down 125 yuan/mt, or 0.47%, at 26,210 yuan/mt. Trading volume fell to 52,752 lots, while open interest decreased by 1,481 lots to 126,000 lots.
Macro: Trump dismissed AI doomsday scenarios, calling the idea that AI will take over the world a “scam”; Microsoft issued a code of conduct to restrict AI models; Kioxia Holdings is reportedly planning to raise at least $10 billion through a US listing; Trump said Russia and Ukraine have agreed not to strike each other’s energy targets; Trump said Iran wants to reach a deal quickly, which Iranian media refuted; Vance said the US is in “direct talks” with the Houthis; the Saudi east-west oil pipeline is reportedly set to be largely shut down within weeks; Saudi Arabia is seeking to increase oil supplies through the Strait of Hormuz.
Spot market:
Shanghai: Yesterday, refined zinc purchase sentiment in Shanghai was 2.06, while selling sentiment was 2.51. In the morning session, zinc ingot prices continued to fall, reaching psychological price levels for some downstream buyers. Downstream enterprises showed stronger purchase willingness yesterday morning, spot trades improved MoM, traders actively offered to sell, and market premiums rose accordingly.
Guangdong: Yesterday, refined zinc purchase sentiment in Guangdong was 1.85, while selling sentiment was 2.45. Zinc prices consolidated lower yesterday, and spot trades in the Guangdong market recovered somewhat, lifting spot premiums. However, absolute zinc ingot prices remained high, and downstream purchasing sentiment stayed cautious, with restocking mainly on an as-needed basis.
Tianjin: Yesterday, refined zinc purchase sentiment in Tianjin was 1.75, while selling sentiment was 2.34. Futures continued to decline yesterday, with a small amount of restocking from downstream buyers with immediate needs, while most downstream users remained on the sidelines. Traders slightly raised their selling premiums, and overall market transactions were moderate.
Ningbo: Yesterday morning, zinc prices on the futures market continued to slide, and some downstream buyers purchased to restock at targeted prices. Overall spot transactions were moderate, with some traders raising spot offers and premiums moving higher.
Social inventory: On September 14, LME zinc inventory fell by 25 mt to 109,550 mt, down 0.02%. According to SMM communication, as of September 14, domestic inventory edged up.
Zinc price forecast: Overnight, LME zinc recorded a bearish candlestick, with support from the 40-day moving average below. Although the LME zinc 0-3 backwardation structure recorded $138.72/mt, structural risks remain, but boosted by safe-haven demand and expectations for US Fed interest rate hikes, the US dollar index strengthened, pressuring the overall base metals trend, and LME zinc extended its decline. Overnight, SHFE zinc recorded a bullish candlestick, with support from the lower Bollinger Band. Dragged down by the decline in LME zinc, SHFE zinc opened lower in the night session, but on the fundamentals side, the tight ore supply situation has not improved, continuing to provide some support for SHFE zinc. SHFE zinc rebounded from lows and is expected to maintain a consolidation pattern in the short term.
Data source statement: Except for public information, all other data are processed by SMM based on public information, market communication, and SMM's internal database models, and are for reference only and do not constitute decision-making advice.
![SHFE zinc opened lower in the night session, expected to consolidate in the short term [SMM zinc morning comment]](https://imgqn.smm.cn/usercenter/kdRPs20251217171754.jpg)
