Imported and domestic copper both arrive, Shanghai spot copper premiums continue to fall under pressure [SMM Shanghai spot copper]

SMM, September 14:

Today, SMM #1 copper cathode spot prices against the SHFE copper 2609 contract were quoted at a discount of 100 yuan/mt to a premium of 80 yuan/mt, with an average price at a discount of 10 yuan/mt, down 75 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. In early trading, the SHFE copper 2609 contract showed a rapid decline followed by consolidation at lows. After the market opened, prices fell quickly from around 109,250 yuan/mt, hitting an intraday low near 108,750 yuan/mt. Prices then rebounded somewhat, briefly climbing back to around 109,050 yuan/mt, but encountered clear resistance above. Subsequently, prices mainly consolidated within the 108,800–108,950 yuan/mt range, with the morning session closing at 108,870 yuan/mt. The backwardation spread between the front-month and next-month contracts ranged from 660 yuan/mt to 810 yuan/mt, and the import profit margin for SHFE copper against the 2609 front-month contract stood at a profit of 460 yuan/mt to 730 yuan/mt.

During the day, the selling sentiment for copper cathode in the Shanghai region was 3.61, down 0.08 WoW, while the purchasing sentiment was 2.57, down 1.10 WoW. Historical data can be queried in the database. At the start of the morning session, suppliers initially quoted standard-quality copper at parity to a premium of 60 yuan/mt. Subsequently, suppliers lowered their quotes amid consumption, with Tiefeng, Zijin, and Yuguang quoted at a discount of 50 yuan/mt, and non-registered copper lowered from a discount of 170 yuan/mt to 140 yuan/mt down to a discount of 250 yuan/mt to 200 yuan/mt. In the second trading period, suppliers further cut their quotes, with Tiefeng, Zijin, Dajiang HS, and Yuguang quoted at a discount of 120 yuan/mt to 80 yuan/mt, while high-quality copper such as Jintun large plates was quoted at a premium of 60 yuan/mt to 80 yuan/mt.

Looking ahead to tomorrow, which is the last trading day for the SHFE copper 2609 contract, some suppliers have already begun quoting against the October contract during the day, with standard-quality copper quoted at a premium of approximately 700 yuan/mt. As of September 14, SMM's nationwide mainstream social inventory of copper cathode stood at 90,300 mt, up 5,200 mt WoW from Monday, up 2,800 mt from last Thursday, and down 63,900 mt YoY. Among regions, in Shanghai, copper prices pulled back notably last Friday. Although downstream buyers actively priced orders, cargo pick-up was not fully realized, and with small arrivals of both imported and domestic supply, inventory saw some buildup. In Jiangsu, consumption improved somewhat due to the pullback in copper prices, leading to slight destocking. Tomorrow, suppliers are expected to quote high premiums against the October contract. However, since SMM consistently quotes against the front-month contract, after converting based on the inter-month spread, prices are expected to show a slight discount, which will be corrected on the following day.