Core Inflation Exceeds Expectations, Boosting Rate Hike Expectations; Copper Prices Consolidate at Highs [SMM Copper Morning Meeting Summary]

Monday, September 14, 2026
Futures: Last Friday night, LME copper opened at $14,088/mt, rose to an intraday high of $14,359/mt after the open, then pulled back in consolidation, and finally settled at $14,226/mt, up 0.31%. Trading volume reached 27,000 lots, and open interest reached 275,000 lots, up 2,022 lots from the previous trading day, reflecting long-side position building. Last Friday, the most-traded SHFE copper 2610 contract opened at 108,660 yuan/mt, rose to an intraday high of 108,830 yuan/mt in early trading, then drifted lower to an intraday low of 108,350 yuan/mt, and finally settled at 108,440 yuan/mt, down 0.50%. Trading volume reached 37,000 lots, and open interest reached 193,000 lots, down 5,979 lots from the previous trading day, reflecting long-side position reduction.
[SMM Copper Morning Meeting Summary] News:
(1) On Friday, September 11, Citigroup reiterated its three-month copper price target of $15,000/mt. The bank believes that any further risk-off sentiment triggered by tariff concerns recently is only a temporary pullback against the backdrop of broader bullish drivers and themes for copper prices, which provides an opportunity to increase copper price exposure.
Spot:
(1) Shanghai: On September 11, SMM #1 copper cathode spot prices against the SHFE copper 2609 contract were quoted at a premium of 10 yuan/mt to 120 yuan/mt, with an average premium of 65 yuan/mt, down 20 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. In early trading, the SHFE copper 2609 contract traded relatively steadily, mostly between 109,100 yuan/mt and 109,450 yuan/mt, with a closing price of 109,260 yuan/mt. The next-month Back spread ranged from 6,700 yuan/mt to 780 yuan/mt. Import profit margins for SHFE copper against the 2609 contract ranged from a profit of 290 yuan/mt to 530 yuan/mt, with the import window rarely open. During the day, the sales sentiment for copper cathode in Shanghai was 3.12, up 0.13 MoM, and the purchasing sentiment was 2.61, down 0.04 MoM. Historical data can be queried in the database. Looking ahead to this week, on the night of September 10, SHFE copper prices pulled back significantly from the previous trading day, erasing all weekly gains, with the SHFE copper 2609 contract trading mostly in the 109,000-109,700 yuan/mt range. As copper prices moved lower, downstream pricing activity improved notably. According to SMM, some processing enterprises conducted concentrated pricing during the night session, with overall pricing volume significantly higher than the previous trading day. Driven by concentrated pricing, downstream raw material procurement demand was also released, and inquiries and transactions in the Shanghai spot copper cathode market improved notably from the previous trading day. In addition, with the import window rarely open, expectations for subsequent imported copper supply edged up slightly. This Tuesday is the delivery day for the SHFE copper 2609 contract, and spot quotes against SHFE copper are expected to remain at high premiums after the contract rollover.
(2) Guangdong: On September 11, spot #1 copper cathode in Guangdong against the front-month contract: high-quality copper was quoted at a premium of 250 yuan/mt, flat from the previous trading day; standard-quality copper was quoted at a premium of 150 yuan/mt, flat from the previous trading day; SX-EW copper was quoted at a premium of 90 yuan/mt, flat from the previous trading day. The average price of #1 copper cathode in Guangdong was 109,475 yuan/mt, down 3,135 yuan/mt from the previous trading day, and the average price of SX-EW copper was 109,365 yuan/mt, down 3,135 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The purchasing sentiment for copper cathode in Guangdong was 2.68, up 0.27 from the previous trading day, and the selling sentiment was 2.80, down 0.04 from the previous trading day (historical data can be queried in the database). Overall, copper prices fell sharply, downstream purchases increased, and trading was better than yesterday.
(3) Imported copper: On September 11, the average warrant price rose $5/mt from the previous trading day to $85/mt (price range $80-90/mt); the average B/L price rose $5/mt from the previous trading day to $85/mt (price range $80-90/mt); the average price of EQ copper (CIF B/L) rose $3/mt from the previous trading day to $50/mt (price range $40-60/mt), with quotes referencing cargoes arriving from September to early October.
(4) Secondary copper: On September 11 at 11:30, the futures closing price was 109,260 yuan/mt, down 3,030 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Spot premiums averaged 65 yuan/mt, down 20 yuan/mt MoM from the previous trading day. Secondary copper raw material prices fell 1,000 yuan/mt MoM today. The selling sentiment index for secondary copper raw materials fell to 2.79, and the purchasing sentiment index was flat at 1.74. The price difference between copper cathode and copper scrap was 3,211 yuan/mt, down 1,907 yuan/mt MoM. The price difference between copper cathode rod and secondary copper rod was 1,310 yuan/mt. According to SMM survey, affected by the undecided US copper tariffs, copper prices in China and overseas pulled back sharply, and secondary copper raw material prices also fell considerably. Suppliers of secondary copper raw materials already had low inventory and limited shipments, and with the price decline, their willingness to sell was further compressed. Downstream scrap utilization enterprises remained cautious during the sharp rise and fall in copper prices, and transactions of secondary copper raw materials were weak during the day.
Prices: On the macro front, US August core CPI rose more than expected MoM, and expectations for US Fed interest rate hikes in September heated up again. Geopolitically, Iran will meet with Gulf countries, and combined with the ceasefire on the western coast of the Red Sea, the Middle East situation released signals of easing. Bullish and bearish macro factors were intertwined, and the US dollar index pulled back quickly after a short-term rise, while copper prices continued to consolidate at highs. Fundamentals side, supply arrivals of domestic copper and imported cargoes increased, and spot supply improved somewhat, but the overall pattern remained tight. Demand side, downstream dip-buying increased somewhat, but overall demand remained mainly rigid. In summary, copper prices are expected to consolidate at highs today.
[The information provided is for reference only. This article does not constitute direct advice for investment research decisions. Clients should make decisions cautiously and not use this as a replacement for their own independent judgment. Any decisions made by clients have no relation to SMM.]