Market recovery signals gradually emerge; titanium industry chain may see a phased turning point [SMM Titanium Weekly Review]

Titanium concentrates

This week, domestic titanium concentrates (TiO2≥46%) were quoted at 1,200-1,250 yuan/mt, averaging 1,225 yuan/mt, while TiO2≥47% material was quoted at 1,300-1,350 yuan/mt, averaging 1,325 yuan/mt. Mozambique-origin TiO2≥46% titanium concentrates were quoted at 1,220-1,300 yuan/mt, averaging 1,260 yuan/mt, down 25 yuan/mt WoW; Nigeria-origin TiO2≥50% titanium concentrates were quoted at 1,380-1,450 yuan/mt, averaging 1,415 yuan/mt, down 50 yuan/mt WoW; Australia-origin TiO2≥50% titanium concentrates were quoted at 1,450-1,500 yuan/mt, averaging 1,475 yuan/mt, down 50 yuan/mt WoW.

This week, titanium concentrates consolidated at lows, with significant resistance to price rises. The core issue remained weak downstream demand, with no substantial improvement in the overall supply-demand pattern. Supply side, continued inflows of imported ore pressured the Chinese market, port inventory pressure stayed high, and some financially constrained traders sold off cargoes, persistently weighing on market sentiment. Profits for domestic ore have been squeezed to low levels, leaving limited downside room, but new domestic capacity continued to be released, further intensifying market supply pressure. Demand side, some downstream titanium dioxide producers underwent maintenance and production cuts. Although the traditional September peak season has arrived and orders improved modestly from the previous two months, the rebound remained weak, and titanium dioxide plants stayed generally cautious in raw material procurement. In addition, new purification processes being tested in China may bring variables to the market in the medium and long term. In the short term, titanium concentrates are expected to continue consolidating.

Titanium dioxide

This week, anatase titanium dioxide closed at 12,000-13,000 yuan/mt, averaging 12,500 yuan/mt; rutile titanium dioxide closed at 12,500-14,800 yuan/mt, averaging 13,650 yuan/mt; chloride-process titanium dioxide closed at 15,300-16,800 yuan/mt. Prices across all titanium dioxide types were basically flat WoW.

This week, the titanium dioxide market remained generally stable. The market has gradually entered the traditional September peak season, with warming peak-season expectations, but substantial strengthening remains uncertain. Supply side, some producers raised quotations recently, mainly to halt low-price selling and repair market sentiment, rather than reflecting a significant improvement in downstream demand. Industry inventory pressure persists at roughly one month of production, a key factor capping the market. Demand side, downstream inquiries and orders improved modestly from earlier, mainly due to pre-holiday phased restocking, but support for a price rebound was limited. Raw material side, titanium concentrates have largely hit bottom with little downside room, but port sulphur inventory continued to climb, fertilizer industry demand remained weak, and sulphuric acid still faces downward pressure, leaving insufficient cost support. In the short term, the titanium dioxide market will hinge on the pace of real downstream demand release. Gradual improvement is expected, but the market will likely remain rangebound in the near term.

Titanium slag

This week, acid-soluble titanium slag (Sichuan) was quoted at 3,600-3,800 yuan/mt; mainstream quotations for ordinary 90-grade titanium slag stood at 5,200-5,400 yuan/mt.

This week, the titanium slag market consolidated on a weak note. Supply side, operating rates remained low. In Liaoning, only scattered enterprises cut production amid high electricity prices, while Inner Mongolia, though a major producing region, had insufficient profitability and limited willingness to expand. Raw material side, chlorinated titanium ore continued to weaken, yet enterprises remained loss-making, with cost-price inversion unchanged. Demand side, purchases were mainly just-in-time procurement, with sluggish transactions. Overall, under the triple pressure of high costs, weak demand, and low profitability, the market is unlikely to break out of its weak pattern in the short term.

Titanium sponge

This week, grade 0 titanium sponge was quoted at 44,000-45,000 yuan/mt, averaging 44,500 yuan/mt; grade 0 titanium sponge FOB averaged $6,800/mt; grade 1 titanium sponge was quoted at 43,000-44,000 yuan/mt, averaging 43,500 yuan/mt; grade 2 titanium sponge was quoted at 42,000-43,000 yuan/mt, averaging 42,500 yuan/mt.

This week, the titanium sponge market remained in the doldrums. Upstream quotations were concentrated at 44,000-45,000 yuan/mt, with actual transactions mostly near the lower end of the range, as downstream buyers pushed strongly for lower prices. Demand side, performance was weak, downstream enterprise inventories were generally high, procurement was mainly just-in-time, new orders at high prices were scarce, and willingness to chase rising prices was insufficient. Supply side, producer inventories were also elevated, new orders were scarce, and market trading was sluggish. Overall, the tug-of-war between upstream and downstream remained stalemated, with negotiated pricing dominating transactions. The market is expected to remain in the doldrums in the short term, with attention needed on end-use demand recovery and enterprise production cut developments.

Titanium materials

This week, TA1 titanium ingot prices were 55-57 yuan/kg, TA2 titanium ingot prices were 54-55 yuan/kg, and TC4 prices were 64-66 yuan/kg. Hot-rolled titanium plate (3-8mm) was quoted at 64-68 yuan/kg, titanium welded pipe at 105-110 yuan/kg, pure titanium bar at 105-110 yuan/kg, and pure alloy bar at 120-125 yuan/kg.

The titanium materials market currently shows pronounced structural divergence. Supply side, capacity release in the civil sector was constrained, with small and medium casting ingot plants running below 50% operating rates and weak production willingness. Aerospace-grade titanium material capacity was concentrated among top-tier players, with full order books extending delivery cycles and tightening supply. Demand side, the civil market was affected by the off-season, with shrinking procurement for chemical storage tanks and low-end equipment, dominated by small-batch just-in-time restocking and strong wait-and-see sentiment, while aerospace and military sectors maintained high prosperity. Overall, the polarized pattern of civil oversupply and high-end undersupply is unlikely to change in the short term, with upstream titanium sponge near its cost line providing bottom support for the industry chain.

Weekly summary

This week, the titanium industry chain showed a divergent trend overall. Supply side, titanium concentrates consolidated at lows, imported ore cargoes pressured ports, trader sell-offs weighed on the market, and domestic ore had limited downside room. Titanium slag consolidated on a weak note, with enterprises mired in losses. Titanium dioxide prices were generally stable, with warming September peak season expectations, but only modest just-in-time restocking occurred, industry inventory pressure persisted, raw material cost support was weak, and the market lacked upward momentum. Titanium sponge remained in the doldrums, with transactions skewed toward lower prices, high inventories both upstream and downstream, pronounced downstream pressure for lower prices, and sluggish trading. The titanium materials segment showed prominent structural divergence, with weak civil demand and insufficient operating rates, while aerospace and military high-end titanium materials had ample orders and tight supply. Overall, end-use demand across the entire industry chain has not seen a substantive recovery, with support only in high-end segments. In the short term, the titanium industry chain is likely to remain divergent and consolidating, with focus on the implementation of enterprise price adjustments and follow-through on actual transactions.

Outlook

As of press time this week, a domestic industry leader issued a price adjustment notice, quickly boosting market confidence and injecting positive momentum into the persistently sluggish titanium dioxide market. Although some enterprises had previously raised quotations, market response and order fulfillment fell short of expectations, leaving widespread skepticism. As the traditional September peak season gradually advances, expectations for market improvement have warmed. If subsequent price adjustments are implemented and transactions continue to improve, industry inventory destocking will accelerate, and the titanium dioxide market may see a turning point. However, the effectiveness of price adjustments still needs to be verified by actual orders, and the market will most likely remain rangebound in the short term.