[Solid-State Battery: Nine Departments’ 15th Five-Year Plan Incorporates Automotive Solid-State Batteries into the Specialized Standards System, Accelerating the Supply of Cutting-Edge Technology Standards]

China's Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and eight other departments jointly issued the 15th Five-Year plan for intelligent connected NEVs. By 2030, NEV passenger cars and commercial vehicles are targeted to reach 70% and 40% of new vehicle sales in their segments, with autonomous driving at scale and average EV energy consumption around 11.5 kWh per 100 km. The plan outlines 17 key tasks across five areas, including coordinated mining and recycling of lithium, cobalt and nickel resources, standards for vehicle solid-state batteries, wider use of electric heavy-duty trucks in trunk logistics, and a carbon peak in the auto industry before 2030.

This week, the industry chain continued to diverge. On the lithium side, lithium carbonate drifted lower, but downstream stockpiling willingness near 140,000 yuan/mt remained strong, providing support for prices. Lithium ore pulled back accordingly, though overseas supply disruptions and mines holding prices firm kept ore prices relatively resilient. Lithium hydroxide was affected by reduced ternary orders, with transactions remaining weak. The materials segment was under pressure overall, with ternary cathode precursors, ternary cathode materials, and LCO continuing to weaken due to raw material pullbacks and insufficient end-use demand. China production schedules declined somewhat, while overseas high-nickel orders remained relatively good. LFP demand stayed robust, with production and sales holding at high levels. Iron phosphate orders increased, and prices edged up. Anode prices were broadly stable, with artificial graphite still having upside room supported by peak-season production schedules and cost support. High-end separator specifications saw tight supply-demand, with expectations of future price increases. Electrolyte cost support strengthened, with short-term stability for now. Sodium-ion batteries remained constrained by insufficient effective anode and cathode capacity, while the recycling market continued to remain under pressure amid raw material price fluctuations.

The industry chain remained weak overall this week, with price centers generally moving lower. Upstream, reports of low-price raw material transactions increased, and the market stalemate showed signs of easing. Midstream, cost support for salts continued to weaken, and some enterprises, affected by funding and inventory pressure, proactively cut prices to sell, further dragging down market sentiment. Downstream, demand recovery fell significantly short of expectations, with orders for ternary cathode precursors, ternary cathode materials, and LCO all revised downward to varying degrees. Enterprises generally maintained cautious purchasing and destocking strategies, and September production schedules were broadly under pressure. Meanwhile, overseas orders for high-nickel materials remained at a relatively high level, serving as one of the few supportive factors. On the end-user side, NEV production and sales in August continued to grow YoY, but peak-season stockpiling had yet to clearly transmit to the materials segment. In the short term, under the combined effects of falling costs, elevated inventory, and weak demand, most products still lack clear momentum for stabilization, and prices are expected to remain in the doldrums. Going forward, attention should focus on Q4 order improvements, the pace of end-user stockpiling, and the release of low-priced supply.