[Weekly Review and Outlook of China Export Prices]

Published: Sep 11, 2026 14:19

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This week, ferrous metals rose initially before pulling back, with spot coking coal and coke continuing to lead the gains. The rally was driven by a confluence of bullish factors: coking coal production resumptions in Shanxi fell short of expectations, and high-premium auctions amid hold-back selling persisted throughout the week; coke price hikes were implemented successively, with the fifth round taking effect on September 10, transmitting positive feedback smoothly; iron ore rose initially before falling, with I2701 surging to 745 on the back of rising crude oil and high hot metal output, before pulling back in the latter half of the week on news such as the conclusion of long-term contract negotiations. In terms of data, spot HRC prices in US dollar terms fell $3/mt MoM, sheets & plates export prices dropped $2-4/mt, long steel prices declined $3-5/mt MoM, and export margins improved slightly.

Looking ahead, next week is expected to see a continued tug-of-war between "cost support vs. demand pressure": spot coking coal and coke are likely to remain firm, with the sixth round of coke price negotiations kicking off, but rising maintenance at steel mills is accumulating negative feedback risks; iron ore is supported by pre-holiday restocking ahead of the National Day holiday, but after significant earlier gains, combined with bearish sentiment and spreading rumors of concluded long-term negotiations, overall prices are expected to consolidate on a subdued note. Currently, steel mills face elevated production costs and are reluctant to cut prices for sales, so foreign trade prices are likely to consolidate around this week's levels.

Data Source Statement: Except for publicly available information, all other data are processed by SMM based on publicly available information, market communication, and relying on SMM's internal database model. They are for reference only and do not constitute decision-making recommendations.

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