Alumina Morning Comment for 9.11
Futures market: In the night session on September 11, the most-traded alumina 2701 contract opened at 2,762 yuan/mt, reached a high of 2,792 yuan/mt and a low of 2,756 yuan/mt, and settled at 2,761 yuan/mt, down 9 yuan/mt or 0.32% from the previous trading day's settlement price. Trading volume was 90,900 lots, and open interest was 203,700 lots, up 8,277 lots from the previous day. From a technical perspective, prices traded below MA5 (2,769.80) but remained above MA10 (2,759.50) and MA30 (2,740.80), while also below MA60 (2,782.52), suggesting an intensifying tug-of-war between longs and shorts in the short term. In MACD indicators, DIF (2.18) remained above DEA (-4.90), and the MACD histogram printed 14.15, still in positive territory, but the red bars continued to narrow from earlier levels, indicating that short-term bullish momentum was weakening at the margin. During the night session, prices briefly tested 2,792 yuan/mt before pulling back, accompanied by rising open interest, suggesting that resistance near 2,800 yuan/mt remained notable. In the short term, attention should be paid to support near 2,750-2,760 yuan/mt and resistance in the 2,780-2,800 yuan/mt zone.
Bauxite: As of September 10, 2026, the SMM imported bauxite CIF index was reported at $72.07/mt, flat from the previous trading day; the average price of high-grade bauxite (Shanxi) was reported at 585 yuan/mt, flat from the previous trading day; the average price of low-grade bauxite (Shanxi) was reported at 540 yuan/mt, flat from the previous trading day; the average price of high-grade bauxite (Henan) was reported at 590 yuan/mt, flat from the previous trading day; the average price of low-grade bauxite (Henan) was reported at 520 yuan/mt, flat from the previous trading day; the average price of high-grade bauxite (Guangxi) was reported at 365 yuan/mt, flat from the previous trading day; the average price of low-grade bauxite (Guangxi) was reported at 327.50 yuan/mt, flat from the previous trading day; the average price of high-grade bauxite (Guizhou) was reported at 495 yuan/mt, flat from the previous trading day; the average price of low-grade bauxite (Guizhou) was reported at 400 yuan/mt, flat from the previous trading day; the average price of Guiyang bauxite (60%/6.0) was reported at 515 yuan/mt, flat from the previous trading day; the SMM average CIF price of Australian low-temperature bauxite was reported at $67/mt, flat from the previous trading day; the SMM average CIF price of Australian high-temperature bauxite was reported at $60.50/mt, flat from the previous trading day; the SMM average FOB price of Guinean bauxite was reported at $40/dmt, flat from the previous trading day; the SMM average CIF price of Guinean bauxite was reported at $71.50/mt, flat from the previous trading day; the average CIF price of Malaysian bauxite was reported at $52/mt, flat from the previous trading day; the average CIF price of Malaysian bauxite (washed) was reported at $62.50/mt, flat from the previous trading day; the average CIF price of Ghanaian bauxite was reported at $78/mt, flat from the previous trading day; the average FOB price of Indonesian bauxite was reported at $37/mt in physical content, flat from the previous trading day; the CFR price of bauxite (Turkey) was reported at $72.50/dmt, flat from the previous trading day; and the average FOB price of bauxite (Pakistan) was reported at $58.50/dmt, flat from the previous trading day.
Spot alumina prices: On September 10, the SMM alumina index stood at 2,676.14 yuan/mt, down 0.53 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; the SMM Shandong alumina index stood at 2,677.67 yuan/mt, down 0.17 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; the SMM Henan alumina index stood at 2,700.32 yuan/mt, down 2.66 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; the SMM Shanxi alumina index stood at 2,698.74 yuan/mt, down 0.73 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; the SMM Guizhou alumina index stood at 2,710.52 yuan/mt, down 0.45 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; the SMM Guangxi alumina index stood at 2,590.16 yuan/mt, down 0.20 yuan/mt from the previous trading day.
Spot-futures price spread daily: According to SMM data, on September 10, the SMM alumina index was at a discount of 91.86 yuan/mt against the latest traded price of the most-traded contract as of 11:30 a.m.
Warrant daily: On September 10, total registered alumina warrants stood at 266,976 mt, flat from the previous trading day; total registered alumina warrants in Shandong stood at 5,092 mt, flat from the previous trading day; total registered alumina warrants in Henan stood at 0 mt, flat from the previous trading day; total registered alumina warrants in Guangxi stood at 36,394 mt, flat from the previous trading day; total registered alumina warrants in Gansu stood at 24,868 mt, flat from the previous trading day; total registered alumina warrants in Xinjiang stood at 200,622 mt, flat from the previous trading day.
Markets outside China: As of September 10, 2026, FOB Western Australia alumina prices stood at $349/mt, flat from the previous trading day; the Australia-China ocean freight rate stood at $33.40/mt, flat from the previous trading day; the USD/CNY selling rate was around 6.73. Based on this calculation, the price was equivalent to approximately 2,985.95 yuan/mt at mainstream domestic ports, 309.81 yuan/mt above the SMM alumina index.
Summary: This week, spot alumina prices remained broadly stable. Constrained by fluctuations in the futures market, prices held at current levels with limited changes, but the supply side continued to pressure the market. In terms of supply, an alumina enterprise in Shanxi began resuming production, and with some northern enterprises completing maintenance, production recovered somewhat; in Guangxi, enterprises that had previously undergone maintenance have returned to normal levels, while a few enterprises in south China still made minor adjustments, with overall production still showing growth. Outside China, alumina transaction prices in Australia pulled back from $360/mt to around $350/mt, mainly because the earlier influx of cargoes into China decreased, easing supply pressure outside China and prompting prices to pull back accordingly. In terms of inventory, total inventory in China increased by 8,000 mt this week to 7.27 million mt. Looking ahead to next week, operating capacity still has room for recovery, prices are expected to fluctuate around current levels under the influence of futures, and inventory is expected to rise slightly.
[All data other than publicly available information is processed by SMM based on public information, market communication, and SMM's internal database models, and is for reference only and does not constitute decision-making advice.]
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