SMM, September 10:
Raw materials: This week, trading activity in China's petroleum coke market showed some weakening, with overall prices consolidating slightly. Among refiners, CNOOC raised petroleum coke prices modestly across its plants, with adjustments concentrated in the range of 50-100 yuan/mt; PetroChina's low-sulphur coke prices in the north-east region and shipments in north-west China were stable; Sinopec refineries saw smooth sales of anode-grade coke, and its petroleum coke quotations continued to trend upward. Independent refiners' overall shipments were moderate, with intraday prices mixed. SMM's latest data shows the spot price index for 1# petroleum coke in north-east China at 4,635.46 yuan/mt, flat WoW; the spot price index for 2# petroleum coke in Shandong at 4,326.89 yuan/mt, up 0.52% WoW; the spot price index for 3# petroleum coke in Shandong at 3,861.55 yuan/mt, up 2.21% WoW; the spot price index for 4# petroleum coke in Shandong at 2,279.19 yuan/mt, down 0.43% WoW; and the spot price index for 3# petroleum coke in north-west China at 4,202.47 yuan/mt, flat WoW. Recently, some domestic refiners completed maintenance and resumed operations, with domestic supply growth gradually being released, and further incremental growth is still expected; as month-start restocking and stockpiling wound down, downstream enterprises' procurement pace slowed somewhat, but rigid demand support remains. In the short term, China's petroleum coke prices are expected to maintain a divergent pattern, with low-sulphur coke prices firm and mid-to-high sulphur coke prices encountering resistance. This week, the coal tar pitch market held up well. As of Thursday this week, the average coal tar pitch price was 6,076.67 yuan/mt, up 11.13% WoW from last Thursday. Overall, cost support for prebaked anode remained strong this week.
Supply side: Prebaked anode enterprises continued to produce based on sales, with new projects in Guangxi coming on stream successively and new capacity being released steadily; some enterprises saw operating rates pull back slightly due to maintenance, but the industry's overall supply capability improved steadily. Demand side: China's operating aluminum capacity stayed high, providing stable rigid support for anode consumption. On exports, new aluminum projects in Indonesia continued to come on stream, driving domestic anode exports to improve. Overall, high aluminum operating rates effectively underpinned domestic demand, and the export market improved marginally, but concentrated new capacity additions made supply growth slightly faster than demand growth, intensifying market competition.
Commentary: This week, China's prebaked anode raw material side held up well, and the industry's overall production costs continued to shift upward. According to SMM data monitoring, as of September 10, China's prebaked anode production cost was 5,972.67 yuan/mt, up 2.05% from last Thursday. Looking ahead, cost support is relatively strong—the petroleum coke market's center is holding up well with grade-based divergence, and coal tar pitch prices are being driven sharply higher by raw material support, with overall raw material support for anode prices remaining strong; however, concentrated new capacity additions in the industry are making supply growth faster than demand growth, further intensifying market competition. Future focus should be on tracking supply-demand pattern changes and price trends of prebaked anodes and their upstream raw materials.
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