【PTBA Says Coal Production and Shipments Remain Normal Following Indonesia’s Anak Krakatau Eruption】

[Indonesia] Currently, wire rod prices stand at 505 USD per metric ton FOB. The situation remains in a wait-and-see phase, and there has been no movement whatsoever from Chinese steel producers. However, the Indonesian currency currently appears stronger than before, which could potentially trigger changes in steel prices. Nevertheless, steel mills remain comfortable with the current price, and this change is unlikely to affect it. However, given this development, the market may experience light on how the movement is.

Indonesia’s seaborne coal exports totaled 36.10 million tonnes in August 2026, down 23.34% year on year and 6.54% month on month. Exports declined for a third consecutive month to their lowest August level in five years. Drought lowered water depths on the Barito River from the usual 8–18 metres to 3–4 metres, forcing some barges to halve their loads. Some stretches became unnavigable, and several producers declared force majeure. Shipments to major destinations were mixed: exports to China and India reached 14.47 million tonnes and 7.10 million tonnes, up 1.26% and 12.01% month on month, respectively, while shipments to the Philippines and Vietnam fell 26.38% and 21.58%.

Premium low-volatile coking coal held at $281.30/t and tier-two hard coking coal at $246.90/t, with no index-eligible trades reported for either grade. Premium low-volatile coking coal on a CFR India basis remained at $305.30/t, as high coal prices and elevated freight continued to discourage Indian spot enquiries. On demand, mills had largely completed restocking and held comfortable inventories, prompting a pause in fresh purchases. Separately, a trader reported rising coal auction failure rates in Shanxi, suggesting increased resistance to high prices among some buyers.