SMM, Sep 10:
In Aug 2026, China's domestic petroleum coke supply ended the consecutive contraction seen in June-July and returned to a growth trajectory. Local refiners' total petroleum coke production rebounded to 739,300 mt, up 30.32% MoM, with the operating rate rising from 42.18% to 54.96%. On an all-caliber basis, China's total petroleum coke production in Aug reached 2.2155 million mt, up 7.67% MoM, of which mainstream refiners produced 1.4762 million mt, pulling back slightly by 0.95% MoM. Among major refiners, Shijiazhuang Refinery also resumed production and coke output in late Aug. Supply-side loosening signals were notable, but entering Sep, Qilu Petrochemical and Lanzhou Petrochemical began full-month maintenance shutdowns from end-Aug, and in early-to-mid Sep, two major units at Anqing and Daqing underwent new shutdowns, which will offset the production growth from resumptions at Yangzi Petrochemical and Karamay. The slope of supply recovery remains to be verified.
Aug overall supply: local refiners drove strong recovery, underpinning MoM rebound in national total
In June-July, China's local refinery delayed coking units underwent concentrated maintenance, with petroleum coke production pulling back for two consecutive months to a yearly low of 656,200 mt and 567,300 mt respectively, keeping industry supply persistently tight. Entering Aug, previously maintained local refinery units restarted in batches, accelerating the pace of capacity release and significantly recovering domestic petroleum coke supply. Local refiners' total petroleum coke production reached 739,300 mt in the month, up sharply by 30.32% MoM, with a MoM growth of 172,000 mt. The local refinery operating rate rebounded 12.78 percentage points from the yearly low of 42.18% in Jul to 54.96%. Overall, local refinery supply remains in a ramp-up recovery phase, with production and operating rates not yet restored to the Jan-May average, leaving further recovery room.
All-caliber data showed that China's total petroleum coke production in Aug 2026 was 2.2155 million mt, up 7.67% MoM from 2.0577 million mt in Jul, but still down 8.70% YoY from 2.4266 million mt in Aug 2025, with overall supply still below the year-ago level. Structural divergence was pronounced: the MoM supply recovery in Aug was driven entirely by production resumptions at local refiners, while mainstream major refiners remained weak and dragged on the overall YoY performance. Among them, major refiners' petroleum coke production in Aug was 1.4762 million mt, pulling back slightly by 0.95% MoM, with the operating rate at 76.99%, down 0.74 percentage points MoM. Local refiners' production accounted for 33.4% of the national total, serving as the core support for supply recovery.
Regional supply landscape: non-Shandong local refiners show notable elasticity; Shandong is the main source of growth
From the pace of regional production resumptions, the growth in domestic refinery petroleum coke production in August was underpinned by Shandong and strongly boosted by non-Shandong regions, with notable differences in regional recovery elasticity. As the core production hub for domestic refinery petroleum coke, Shandong maintained the largest production base nationwide, with August production at 472,500 mt, up 69,200 mt from 403,300 mt in July, a 17.16% MoM increase, while the operating rate rose from 44.71% to 52.37%, achieving a steady recovery.
Non-Shandong refinery production resumptions were faster and more elastic, with the August recovery far outpacing Shandong. Non-Shandong refinery petroleum coke production reached 266,900 mt in August, up sharply by 102,900 mt from 164,000 mt in July, a 62.74% MoM increase; the operating rate rebounded sharply from 37.02% to 60.24%, becoming the first to break above the 60% threshold. Overall, maintenance-related unit restarts were more concentrated in non-Shandong regions in August, with higher capacity release efficiency, effectively supplementing the national refinery supply growth.
Operating rate divergence: state-owned refiners drag supply, independent refiners show resilience
Since 2026, operating rates and production trends at state-owned and independent refiners have continued to diverge, with the gap gradually widening. In August, the operating rate at state-owned refiners was only 76.99%, down sharply by 13.23 percentage points from 90.22% in the same period of 2025, near a two-year low; correspondingly, state-owned refinery production fell 14.38% YoY in August, the core reason for the continued YoY decline in total national petroleum coke production. In contrast, independent refiners saw their August operating rate edge up 0.81 percentage points YoY, with production up 5.25% YoY, achieving countertrend growth amid overall industry weakness.
January-August cumulative data confirm the full-year weak pattern, with total national petroleum coke production at 18.1653 million mt, down 6.40% YoY. Among this, mainstream refinery cumulative production was 12.0756 million mt, down 7.03% YoY; independent refinery cumulative production was 6.0897 million mt, down 5.13% YoY. By weighting, state-owned refinery production accounts for nearly two-thirds of the national total, and their persistently low operating levels are the key factor constraining the overall recovery of domestic petroleum coke supply. In addition, the Shijiazhuang refinery completed maintenance and resumed coke production in late August, slightly narrowing the state-owned supply gap, but failed to reverse the overall weak pattern for state-owned refiners.
September supply forecast: independent refiners continue to ramp up production, recovery slope slows amid mixed bullish and bearish factors
Based on the maintenance and production resumption progress of coking units nationwide, China's petroleum coke supply in September showed a pattern of "continued growth from independent refiners, pressure on state-owned refiners," with maintenance and production resumptions offsetting each other and the pace of supply recovery slowing somewhat.
In terms of overall capacity changes, the industry resumed production capacity of 10.3 million mt/year in September, added maintenance capacity of 1.7 million mt/year, carried over 2.6 million mt/year of maintenance capacity from end-August, resulting in net resumed production capacity of approximately 6 million mt/year. The concentrated release of capacity will continue to benefit independent refiners, with their operating rate expected to exceed 60% in September and monthly production rebounding to above 800,000 mt, making supply growth from independent refiners highly certain.
Maintenance pressure at state-owned refiners was pronounced, significantly constraining supply. Qilu Petrochemical and Lanzhou Petrochemical began full-month shutdown maintenance from end-August, with no capacity release throughout September; meanwhile, two state-owned units at Anqing Petrochemical and Daqing Petrochemical underwent new shutdown maintenance in early-to-mid September, further contracting state-owned capacity. Although previously maintained units at Yangzi Petrochemical and Karamay resumed production in September, adding incremental supply, this could not offset the reduction from concentrated maintenance at state-owned refiners, and state-owned refinery production is expected to pull back slightly MoM in September. In addition, multiple state-owned units at Guangzhou Petrochemical and Tianjin Petrochemical remained offline long-term without resuming production, continuing to cap state-owned supply.
Overall, China's total petroleum coke production in September will continue its MoM rebound. Supported by incremental supply from independent refiners, the nationwide YoY supply decline is expected to narrow further, but dragged down by maintenance at state-owned refiners, a YoY turnaround to positive growth remains difficult to achieve, with the overall pace of supply recovery mild and weak.
