High copper prices combined with weak supply and demand keep SHFE copper spot premiums falling under pressure [SMM SHFE Copper Spot]

SMM, September 10:

Today, SMM #1 copper cathode spot prices against the SHFE copper 2609 contract were quoted at a premium of 10-160 yuan/mt, with an average premium of 85 yuan/mt, down 45 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The SHFE copper 2609 contract retreated after multiple rapid rises, opening at 112,400 yuan/mt, repeatedly testing around 112,550 yuan/mt before pulling back during the session. Near the close, prices fell quickly, dipping to 112,190 yuan/mt intraday, and closed at 112,290 yuan/mt. The Back month spread ranged from 550 yuan/mt to 620 yuan/mt, and the import profit margin for SHFE copper against the 2609 contract for the current month was between a loss of 800 yuan/mt and a loss of 690 yuan/mt.

Intraday, the selling sentiment for copper cathode in Shanghai was 3.12, up 0.13 MoM, while the purchasing sentiment was 2.61, down 0.04 MoM. Historical data can be queried in the database. At the start of morning trading, suppliers initially quoted standard-quality copper at a premium of 40-150 yuan/mt, and non-registered copper at a discount of 50-20 yuan/mt. Subsequently, suppliers lowered their quotes, with standard-quality copper quoted at parity to a premium of 50 yuan/mt. In the second session, prices saw little change. High-quality copper such as Guixi and Jintun large plates were quoted at a premium of 150-180 yuan/mt, while Jinchuan ISA Yongchang and Qilin were quoted at parity. Tiefeng, Zijin, Jinguan, and Jinxin traded at a premium of 10-50 yuan/mt. Non-registered copper was quoted at a discount of 120-80 yuan/mt.

Looking ahead to tomorrow, as of the morning close, open interest in the SHFE copper 2609 contract stood at 29,240 lots. According to SMM, suppliers have not yet begun converting deliverable cargoes into warrants. On the supply side, both imported cargoes and smelter arrivals are limited. On the demand side, with copper prices staying high, downstream enterprises are maintaining just-in-time procurement. Overall, supply and demand are both weak, and premiums are expected to continue edging down slightly.