Thursday, September 10, 2026
Futures: Overnight LME copper opened at $14,643/mt, dipped to $14,624/mt in early trading, then drifted higher, hitting a high of $14,858.5/mt near the close before settling at $14,812/mt, up 0.57%. Trading volume reached 20,000 lots, and open interest stood at 271,000 lots, up 4,639 lots from the previous trading day, driven by bullish positioning. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE copper 2610 contract opened at 111,150 yuan/mt, bottomed at 111,100 yuan/mt right at the open, then climbed, touching a high of 111,950 yuan/mt near the close before consolidating at highs to settle at 111,910 yuan/mt, up 0.71%. Trading volume reached 45,500 lots, and open interest stood at 232,000 lots, up 3,238 lots from the previous trading day, driven by bullish positioning.
[SMM Copper Morning Briefing] News: (1) Iran captured an advanced US unmanned underwater vehicle, and US forces struck an Iranian oil tanker—multiple military confrontations erupted in the Middle East within days, sharply deteriorating the situation in the Strait of Hormuz and surrounding waters, putting global energy markets under pressure. According to Xinhua News Agency, a spokesman for Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps said on the 9th that Iran will establish a new maritime "sanctions zone" extending from Chabahar Port to parts of the Gulf of Oman and the Arabian Sea. Coordinates will be announced separately. Earlier, Xinhua reported on the 9th that IRGC spokesman Mohbbi claimed on the evening of the 8th that Iranian forces captured the US military's most advanced unmanned underwater vehicle at the entrance to the Strait of Hormuz in the early hours of that day, and that no advanced technology can breach Iran's multi-layered surveillance system in the strait.
(2) Tariff expectations have continued to compress physical supply outside the US market, compounded by a long-term supply-demand imbalance, jointly driving this rally. Meanwhile, inflation concerns arising from escalating Middle East tensions have added uncertainty to the copper price outlook.
The LME three-month benchmark copper contract hit a high of $14,858.50/mt, surpassing the previous session's peak of $14,779.00/mt, marking a third consecutive trading day of record highs. COMEX copper futures also climbed to a record high of $6.894/lb.
Spot: (1) Shanghai: On September 9, SMM #1 copper cathode spot premiums against the SHFE copper 2609 contract were quoted at 50-210 yuan/mt, with an average of 130 yuan/mt, down 35 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Looking ahead, SHFE copper prices have remained above 110,000 yuan/mt recently, and high copper prices are increasingly suppressing end-user procurement. Although some end-users, worried about further price increases, restocked modestly on pullbacks, overall procurement remained need-based, with a strong wait-and-see sentiment in the market.
(2) Guangdong: On September 9, Guangdong #1 copper cathode spot prices against the front-month contract: high-quality copper was quoted at a premium of 250 yuan/mt, flat from the previous trading day; standard-quality copper at a premium of 150 yuan/mt, flat from the previous trading day; SX-EW copper at a premium of 90 yuan/mt, flat from the previous trading day. Overall, inventory declined again and spot premiums held firm, but trading was weaker than yesterday.
(3) Imported copper: On September 9, the average warrant price rose $10/mt from the previous trading day to $85/mt (price range: $80-90/mt); the average B/L price rose $10/mt from the previous trading day to $85/mt (price range: $80-90/mt). The LME backwardation structure narrowed, with the September and October dates shifting to a contango structure that widened. Domestic inventories remained low, market supply was limited, and suppliers held prices firm, lifting offers during the week.
(4) Secondary copper: On September 9, at 11:30, the futures closing price was 111,190 yuan/mt, up 20 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The average spot premium was 130 yuan/mt, down 35 yuan/mt MoM from the previous trading day. Secondary copper raw material prices rose 200 yuan/mt MoM today. The sales sentiment index for copper scrap rose to 2.95, and the procurement sentiment index rose to 1.78. The price difference between copper cathode and copper scrap was 4,406 yuan/mt, down 243 yuan/mt MoM. The price difference between copper cathode rod and secondary copper rod was 2,200 yuan/mt. According to SMM survey, copper prices shot up in the night session and pulled back today. Secondary copper rod enterprises took a significant number of new orders over the past two days. With copper prices maintaining an upward trend, secondary copper rod enterprises, concerned about future high raw material prices causing sales losses, were more active in procurement during the day, while order intake decreased from yesterday.
Prices: On the macro front, the US Treasury announced a long-term bond buyback operation of up to $6 billion on Thursday. US Treasuries fell instead of rising, and the US dollar index weakened accordingly, providing bullish support for copper prices. The market remains broadly cautious, awaiting the impact of this week's US inflation data on the US Fed's monetary policy direction. On the fundamentals side, supply showed regional divergence, with no significant replenishment of spot cargoes and circulation remaining tight; on the demand side, high copper prices further suppressed end-use consumption, with strong wait-and-see sentiment in the market. Overall, copper prices are expected to consolidate on a strong note today.
[Data source statement: Except for publicly available information, all other data are processed by SMM based on public information, market communication, and SMM's internal database models, and are for reference only, not constituting decision-making advice.]
![US dollar index decline supports copper prices, overnight copper prices closed higher across the board [SMM Copper Morning Comment]](https://imgqn.smm.cn/usercenter/xKfXl20251217171711.jpg)
