SHFE tin closed overnight at 424,330, up 1.53%, breaking above 420,000. Before the September 11 CPI release, the 420,000 level awaits confirmation. [SMM Tin Morning Update]

SHFE tin closed at 424,330 in the night session, up 1.53%, breaking above 420,000. The 420,000 level awaits confirmation ahead of the September 11 CPI release.

[Futures] LME 3M tin closed at $55,218/mt on September 9 (+$356, +0.65%), with an intraday range of 54,710-55,445. LME inventory stood at 5,415 mt (-55 mt), with the canceled warrant ratio at 26.50%, a historical high, and nearly 27% of warrants pending cancellation. The most-traded SHFE tin SN2610 contract traded in a range of 415,800-420,460 during the September 9 daytime session, settling at 417,950 (-0.33%) on thin volume. In the September 9 night session, it closed at 424,330 (+6,380, +1.53%), with a range of 418,550-424,950. Open interest was 37,300 lots and trading volume was 72,300 lots, as bulls added positions to drive the overnight rise.

[Macro] CME FedWatch showed the probability of a 25bp rate hike at the September FOMC meeting rose to 60.4% (from 58.3% the previous day). US August nonfarm payrolls increased by 162,000, far exceeding expectations of 56,000. Rate hike expectations remain firm ahead of the September 11 CPI release and the September 15-16 FOMC meeting. The US dollar index closed at 98.84 on September 8 (-0.27%). WTI crude oil settled at $92.17 on September 8 (+1.55%, rising for three consecutive days), as US-Iran tensions escalated (a tanker attack in the Strait of Hormuz and Iran's establishment of a "no-sail zone"), with crude oil risk premiums continuing to climb.

[Fundamentals] Supply: Logistics in Myanmar's Wa State remained constrained at the end of the rainy season, with July tin concentrate exports to China at 1,077 mt (-27% MoM). Indonesia's August tin ingot exports to China totaled 2,483 mt, with total exports of 4,564 mt recovering to the expected range. Yunnan 40% tin concentrate TCs held steady at a low 18,000 yuan/mt. Yinman Mining's beneficiation plant resumed production on September 3, while the resumption of mining operations remains pending. Demand: July solder operating rate was 72.8%, at a low for the same period in the past five years. Downstream users made just-in-time procurement with weak stockpiling willingness. Tin demand for AI computing power is projected at 19,300 mt in 2026E, rising to 41,100 mt in 2030E (CAGR 16%). Demand for high-end solder related to advanced packaging shows strong resilience but provides limited boost to spot cargo.

[Summary] The most-traded SHFE tin contract is expected to consolidate in the 420,000-427,000 range today. If long positions continue to recover, prices could test 428,000. Wait-and-see sentiment is likely to prevail ahead of the September 11 CPI release. Range trading is recommended, with attention on the 420,000 support level.

[Data source disclaimer: Except for publicly available information, all other data are processed by SMM based on public information, market communication, and SMM's internal database models, and are for reference only and do not constitute decision-making advice. The information provided is for reference only. This article does not constitute direct advice for investment research decisions. Clients should make prudent decisions and should not use this as a substitute for their own independent judgment. Any decisions made by clients are unrelated to Shanghai Metals Market.]