[SMM Nickel Midday Review] Nickel prices consolidated on a weak note on September 9, with strong wait-and-see sentiment in the market ahead of the US CPI release on Friday

Published: Sep 9, 2026 11:38

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SMM Nickel, September 9:

Macro and market news:

(1) The Middle East situation escalated again, with Brent crude approaching $100. The US military struck oil tankers near Kharg Island, Iran's oil export hub, and Iran's military warned it would attack oil tankers at ports in Kuwait and Bahrain; Yemen's Houthi forces launched large-scale attacks on military and oil facilities in four cities in southern Saudi Arabia, injuring 73 people. Overnight, WTI rose 1.65% to $92.26/bbl, and Brent rose 1.97% to $97.68/bbl (touching $99.2 intraday); Goldman Sachs warned that if shipping attacks increase further, oil prices could rise to $120.

(2) US stocks saw concentrated catch-up declines on the first trading day after Labor Day, with gold prices losing the 4,400 level. The market concentrated on repricing the "blowout nonfarm payrolls + Middle East escalation" combination, with the Dow falling 1.18% (628 points) and the S&P 500 down 0.58%; spot gold closed down 1.15% at $4,355/oz. Chip stocks bucked the trend and strengthened, with Intel surging 9% (planning to raise PC CPU prices by 10%) and Qualcomm up 3% (securing Amazon's AI custom chip orders).

(3) September rate hike expectations held at around 60%, with Friday's CPI as the decisive data point. The market expects US August headline CPI to rise to 0.4% MoM (driven by gasoline), but core CPI YoY may fall to 2.4% (the lowest since 2021), and the "hot headline, cool core" combination increases uncertainty for the September 15-16 meeting decision; Thursday's PPI serves as a precursor. The yen strengthened for a third consecutive day to around 153.5, as US Treasury Secretary Bessent issued tough warnings to yen bears.

(4) China's August import and export data beat expectations. August total import and export value reached 4.65 trillion yuan, up 19.8% YoY (exports +18.6%, imports +21.7%), maintaining double-digit growth for four consecutive months; exports in dollar terms rose 25%. LME copper reported $14,617/mt, continuing to hit record highs. China's August CPI/PPI will be released at 9:30 today, with institutions expecting CPI YoY to rebound to around 0.8% and PPI YoY at 3.5%-3.8%.

Spot market:
On September 9, the average price of SMM #1 refined nickel was 127,850 yuan/mt, flat from the previous trading day. In terms of spot premiums, the average for Jinchuan #1 refined nickel was 2,150 yuan/mt, up 400 yuan/mt from the previous trading day, and the range for mainstream domestic electrodeposited nickel brands was -200-500 yuan/mt.

Futures market:
The most-traded SHFE nickel contract (2610) consolidated on a weak note in early trading, closing the morning session at 126,800 yuan/mt, down 0.11%.

Short-term outlook:
Brent crude approaching $100 is fueling a two-way tug-of-war between inflation trades and rate hike expectations, with strong wait-and-see sentiment in the market ahead of Friday's US CPI release; nickel's own high inventory and weak demand fundamentals remain unchanged, and after an early-session shot up above 128,000, prices faced selling pressure and pulled back. In the short term, the most-traded SHFE nickel contract is expected to trade in the range of 126,000-130,000 yuan/mt.

Data Source Statement: Except for publicly available information, all other data are processed by SMM based on publicly available information, market communication, and relying on SMM's internal database model. They are for reference only and do not constitute decision-making recommendations.

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