Futures:
Overnight, the LME lead 3M contract opened lower and moved higher on September 8, drifting higher throughout the session within a range of $1,894.5-1,916.5/mt. It opened at $1,900.5/mt and closed at $1,915.0/mt, up $15.5/mt or 0.82% from the previous trading day's closing price, with the daily candlestick forming a solid bullish candle. Trading volume was 5,344 lots and open interest stood at 172,829 lots.
Overnight, the SHFE lead 2610 contract rebounded in the night session, tracking LME gains. It opened at 16,135 yuan/mt, briefly dipped to 16,125 yuan/mt shortly after the open, then drifted higher, consolidating at highs in the early morning. It hit a session high of 16,190 yuan/mt before closing at 16,185 yuan/mt, up 50 yuan/mt or 0.31% from the previous trading day's closing price. Night session volume was 24,814 lots and open interest stood at 63,669 lots.
On the macro front:
Overseas, the US dollar index moved sideways on Tuesday, briefly testing the 99 level without success, and closed down 0.07% at 98.85. The policy-sensitive 2-year Treasury yield rose more than 3 bp to 4.408%, while the 10-year yield stood at 4.795%. US Treasury Secretary Bessent made tough remarks on the yen. Zimbabwe announced an immediate ban on antimony and tungsten exports, issuing another resource control order. On the geopolitical front, tensions in the Middle East escalated again, with Houthi forces launching large-scale attacks on Saudi military and oil facilities, while the US Treasury simultaneously issued a new round of sanctions against Iran. International oil prices rose for a second consecutive day, with WTI up 1.65% to $92.26/bbl, holding above $92, and Brent up 1.97% to $97.68/bbl.
In China, data from the General Administration of Customs showed that China's foreign trade imports and exports rose 17.6% YoY in the first eight months. Multiple departments issued notices to expand basic medical insurance coverage for flexible employment workers and other groups. Financial markets remained generally stable. The three major A-share indices were mixed, while nonferrous metals, precious metals, and oil and gas stocks rebounded strongly against the trend.
Spot fundamentals:
Yesterday, SMM #1 lead prices fell 125 yuan/mt. For primary lead, SHFE lead reversed course and pulled back, but spot supply remained tight and suppliers mostly held prices firm when selling. Mainstream primary lead smelters maintained offers at a premium of 0-25 yuan/mt over the SMM #1 lead average price ex-works, with regional quotes diverging. For secondary lead, after the price pullback, secondary smelters held back from selling at low prices and market quotes decreased noticeably. Some secondary refined lead shifted from discounts to parity with the SMM #1 lead average price ex-works, with discounts narrowing. Downstream, enterprises showed slightly better interest in inquiries and purchases, with some looking to buy on dips as needed. Spot market transactions improved regionally.
Inventory: As of September 8, LME lead inventory stood at 385,050 mt, down 3,400 mt from the previous trading day. SHFE lead ingot warrant inventory totaled 57,742 mt, unchanged from the previous trading day.
Today's lead price forecast:
Overnight, SHFE and LME rebounded in tandem, SHFE lead stabilized and recovered in the night session, and LME lead inventory continued to draw down. On the spot side, China's lead ingot social inventory kept accumulating, downstream battery makers still mainly purchased as needed, and actual demand growth was limited, leaving limited upward momentum for lead prices. Spot lead prices are expected to stop falling and stabilize today, possibly edging up slightly along with futures, holding up well in a narrow range. Focus can be placed on whether LME strength can drive SHFE to follow higher, as well as spot premiums and actual transaction follow-through.
![SHFE and LME lead see synchronized position-building rebound, SHFE lead consolidates and rebounds in night session, closing up 0.82% [SMM Lead Morning Brief]](https://imgqn.smm.cn/usercenter/XMxKT20251217171720.jpeg)
![16,000 mark lost then regained; SHFE lead bottoms out, closing with a long lower shadow [Lead Futures Brief Comment]](https://imgqn.smm.cn/usercenter/TmYox20251217171721.jpeg)
