[Brief Comment on Chinese Iron Ore] Iron ore concentrate prices in the Tangshan area may edge up slightly

Today, the most-traded HRC contract rose all the way, closing at 3,395, up 0.62% on the day. In the spot market, HRC prices gained 10-20 yuan/mt, while CRC prices were flat. Transactions improved slightly today, mainly driven by spot-futures purchases, while end-users remained cautious. According to an SMM survey, the impact from maintenance on HRC output this week stood at 131,000 mt, down 43,200 mt WoW. Next week, the impact is expected at 180,100 mt, up 49,100 mt WoW, suggesting an increase in supply. Demand side, the market has entered the verification period of the September-October peak season, but overall, end-user order-taking fell short of expectations, with no significant purchasing activity released. As the spot-futures price spread narrowed, buying interest in futures improved. Overall, the weak fundamentals of sheets & plates will continue to cap the upside room of futures, but the cost side remains supportive in the short term. Therefore, HRC prices are expected to stay high in the short run.

Steel Exchange India Limited produced around 24,824tonnes of rebar in August 2026, its highest monthly output since inception, following the commissioning of a new reheating furnace at its rolling mill. The total comprised approximately 17,358tonnes from continuous casting machine operations and 7,465tonnes from the reheating furnace. The company has an installed TMT rebar production capacity of 357,000tonnes/year at its integrated steel plant near Visakhapatnam. It expects the new furnace to support higher rolling-mill utilisation, production volumes and operational efficiency. SEIL markets its rebars under the SIMHADRI TMT brand.

[India Export] Indian HRC export sentiment remained firm, with offers into Vietnam heard at around 550USD/tonne CFR. Formosa Ha Tinh’s latest offer into Hai Phong was 532USD/tonne CIF for cargoes of at least 20,000tonnes, with smaller-volume offers ranging from 535–543USD/tonne CIF, depending on tonnage. With these levels in Vietnam, the market remain commercially unviable for Indian sellers as they showed limited willingness to reduce offers amid stronger domestic realizations and elevated raw-material costs. Indian HRC CFR Europe levels remained broadly stable, with market sentiment supported by firmer European prices and constrained availability. Domestically, Indian HRC was around 628–649USD/tonne (60,000–62,000INR/tonne) EXW Mumbai. Overall sentiment remained firm, supported by higher coking-coal costs and expectations of stronger post-monsoon demand, giving Indian mills little incentive to chase lower-priced export business in Vietnam.