9.08 Alumina Morning Comment
Futures Market: On the night of September 8, the most-traded alumina 2610 contract opened at 2,735 yuan/mt, reached a high of 2,735 yuan/mt and a low of 2,710 yuan/mt, and settled at 2,714 yuan/mt, down 32 yuan/mt or 1.17% from the previous trading day's settlement price. Trading volume was 49,000 lots, and open interest was 101,800 lots, a daily decrease of 3,870 lots. From a technical perspective, prices are running above the MA5 (2,678.20), MA10 (2,681.30), MA20 (2,679.70), and MA40 (2,702.00), but still below the MA60 (2,756.95). The short- and medium-term technical picture remains in a repair zone, with medium and long-term moving average resistance still overhead. In the MACD indicator, DIF (4.39) is above DEA (-5.38), and the MACD histogram recorded 19.54, still in positive territory, but the red bars have narrowed from earlier highs, indicating that short-term bullish momentum is marginally weakening. In the night session, prices pulled back after opening higher, accompanied by position reductions. Following the earlier rapid rally, the market saw some short-term adjustment. Attention should be paid to support near 2,700 yuan/mt and resistance in the 2,735-2,760 yuan/mt zone.
Bauxite Prices: As of September 7, 2026, the SMM Imported Bauxite CIF Index stood at $72/mt, unchanged from the previous trading day; the average price of high-grade bauxite (Shanxi) was 585 yuan/mt, unchanged from the previous trading day; the average price of low-grade bauxite (Shanxi) was 540 yuan/mt, unchanged from the previous trading day; the average price of high-grade bauxite (Henan) was 590 yuan/mt, unchanged from the previous trading day; the average price of low-grade bauxite (Henan) was 520 yuan/mt, unchanged from the previous trading day; the average price of high-grade bauxite (Guangxi) was 365 yuan/mt, unchanged from the previous trading day; the average price of low-grade bauxite (Guangxi) was 327.5 yuan/mt, unchanged from the previous trading day; the average price of high-grade bauxite (Guizhou) was 495 yuan/mt, unchanged from the previous trading day; the average price of low-grade bauxite (Guizhou) was 400 yuan/mt, unchanged from the previous trading day; the average price of Guiyang bauxite (60%/6.0) was 515 yuan/mt, unchanged from the previous trading day; the SMM average CIF price of Australian low-temperature bauxite was $67/mt, unchanged from the previous trading day; the SMM average CIF price of Australian high-temperature bauxite was $60.5/mt, unchanged from the previous trading day; the SMM average FOB price of Guinean bauxite was $40/dmt, unchanged from the previous trading day; the SMM average CIF price of Guinean bauxite was $71.5/mt, unchanged from the previous trading day; the average CIF price of Malaysian bauxite was $52/mt, unchanged from the previous trading day; the average CIF price of Malaysian bauxite (washed) was $62.5/mt, unchanged from the previous trading day; the average CIF price of Ghanaian bauxite was $78/mt, unchanged from the previous trading day; the average FOB price of Indonesian bauxite was $37/mt in physical content, unchanged from the previous trading day; the CFR price of bauxite (Turkey) was $72.5/dmt, unchanged from the previous trading day; the average FOB price of bauxite (Pakistan) was $58.5/dmt, unchanged from the previous trading day. Spot alumina: On September 7, the SMM alumina index stood at 2,678.01 yuan/mt, down 1.01 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The SMM Shandong alumina index stood at 2,678.61 yuan/mt, down 0.56 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The SMM Henan alumina index stood at 2,705.34 yuan/mt, down 1.39 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The SMM Shanxi alumina index stood at 2,701.03 yuan/mt, down 1.05 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The SMM Guizhou alumina index stood at 2,712.07 yuan/mt, down 1.03 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The SMM Guangxi alumina index stood at 2,593.14 yuan/mt, down 1.55 yuan/mt from the previous trading day.
Spot-futures price spread daily: According to SMM data, on September 7, the SMM alumina index was at a discount of 50.99 yuan/mt against the latest traded price of the most-traded contract at 11:30 a.m.
Warrant daily: On September 7, total registered alumina warrants stood at 249,279 mt, down 1,500 mt from the previous trading day. Total registered alumina warrants in Shandong stood at 5,092 mt, flat from the previous trading day. Total registered alumina warrants in Henan stood at 0 mt, flat from the previous trading day. Total registered alumina warrants in Guangxi stood at 28,576 mt, flat from the previous trading day. Total registered alumina warrants in Gansu stood at 20,978 mt, flat from the previous trading day. Total registered alumina warrants in Xinjiang stood at 194,633 mt, down 1,500 mt from the previous trading day.
Markets outside China: As of September 7, 2026, FOB Western Australia alumina prices stood at $349/mt. The Australia-China ocean freight rate stood at $33.40/mt. The USD/CNY selling rate was around 6.73. Based on these figures, the price equates to approximately 2,987.25 yuan/mt at major domestic ports, 309.24 yuan/mt above the SMM alumina index.
Summary: This week, spot alumina prices were broadly stable. Constrained by fluctuations in the futures market, prices held at current levels with limited movement, but the supply side continued to pressure the market. In terms of supply, an alumina enterprise in Shanxi began resuming production, and with some northern enterprises completing maintenance, production recovered somewhat. In Guangxi, enterprises that had previously undergone maintenance have returned to normal levels, while a few enterprises in south China still made minor adjustments, with overall production still showing growth. Outside China, Australian alumina transaction prices pulled back from $360/mt to around $350/mt, mainly because the earlier influx of cargoes into China diminished, easing supply pressure outside China and prompting prices to retreat accordingly. On the inventory side, total inventory in China increased by 8,000 mt this week to 7.27 million mt. Looking ahead to next week, operating capacity still has room to recover, prices are expected to fluctuate around current levels constrained by the futures market, and inventory is expected to edge higher.
[Other data, except for public information, is processed by SMM based on public information, market communication, and SMM's internal database models. It is for reference only and does not constitute decision-making advice.]
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