SHFE tin closed at 418,870, up 0.15%, continuing to move sideways. Probability of a September rate hike rises to 58.3% [SMM Tin Morning Meeting Minutes]

SHFE tin closed at 418,870, up 0.15%, continuing to move sideways. LME tin inventory fell by 55 mt, with the ratio of cancelled warrants holding at a stage high of 26.50%. The probability of a September rate hike rose to 58.3%. The main fluctuation range is 412,000-419,000 yuan/mt — September 8, 2026 (Tuesday)

[Futures] Overnight outside China: LME 3M tin closed at $54,850/mt on 9/4 (-0.09%). LME tin inventory stood at 5,415 mt (-55), with cancelled warrants at 1,435 mt and the ratio of cancelled warrants at 26.50%, holding at a stage high. Nearly 27% of warrants remain to be drawn down. China SHFE tin: The most-traded SN2610 contract opened at 419,200 yuan/mt in the daytime session on 9/7, hitting an intraday high of 420,250 and a low of 415,490. It settled at 418,260 the previous day and closed at 418,870 yuan/mt (+610, +0.15%), with open interest at 36,900 lots and trading volume at 99,700 lots. It continued to move sideways within the 412,000-420,000 range during the day. The previous night session (01:00 on 9/5) closed at 417,440 yuan/mt (-820, -0.20%).

[Spot] SMM #1 tin was quoted at 415,700-418,700 yuan/mt on 9/7, with an average price of 417,200 yuan/mt, down 1,400 yuan/mt from the previous day. The most-traded contract was at a slight discount to spot. Downstream buyers remained on the sidelines, mainly making small purchases for immediate needs. Smelters and traders reported that the pace of end-user order releases has not yet visibly accelerated.

[Inventory]

• LME tin inventory: 5,415 mt (-55), ratio of cancelled warrants: 26.50%
• SHFE tin inventory: 5,120 mt (+463): Shanghai 2,082 (+509), Guangdong 3,024 (-46), Jiangsu 14 (unchanged)

[Macro] US August nonfarm payrolls rose by 162,000, far exceeding expectations of 56,000, with the unemployment rate unchanged at 4.1%. CME FedWatch data on 9/7 showed a 41.7% probability of rates staying unchanged in September and a 58.3% probability of a 25bp hike (previous: 49.4%). UBS expects the US Fed to hike by 25bp each in September and December. The 10-year Treasury yield pulled back to 4.761% on 9/4 (previous: 4.780%). WTI broke above $91/barrel on 9/3, mainly due to US strikes on Iran. Brent held near $95/barrel. The US August CPI on 9/11 and the FOMC meeting on 9/15-16 are both approaching.

[Fundamentals]

• Mine side: Myanmar's Wa State is in the late rainy season, with mining and logistics still constrained, making it difficult for tin concentrate imports to increase significantly. Indonesia's Timah refined tin shipments are slower than expected. In the DRC, one new Ebola case was reported in the M23-controlled area on 9/3, bringing cumulative confirmed cases to 6,342 and deaths to 3,072 (as of 9/2), with Ituri Province remaining the core epidemic zone. Peru exported 1,900 mt of tin in June.
• Smelting side: Yunnan 40% tin concentrate TCs stood at 18,000 yuan/mt. Yunnan operating rates were above 90%, while Jiangxi remained stable at low levels. July refined tin net exports were 524 mt (imports 2,269 / exports 1,745, including 1,763.7 mt of Indonesian tolling material).
• Demand side: Solder operating rate was 72.8% (low for the same period in the past five years), with July downstream orders weaker than June. Tin use for AI computing power is expected to grow from 19,300 mt in 2026 to 41,100 mt in 2030 (CAGR 16%), with tin consumption in Chinese servers growing at an average annual rate of 29% from 2026 to 2030.

[Spot Market] On 9/7, SHFE tin opened higher and then pulled back, moving sideways within the 415,000-420,000 range. Fluctuating macro expectations outside China, slight social inventory buildup in China, and tightness on the mine side formed a standoff. Demand is still in the transition window between the off-season and peak season, with no concentrated release. Key judgment: This week, the most-traded SHFE tin SN2610 contract is expected to continue fluctuating within the 412,000-419,000 yuan/mt range, with focus on whether the 410,000 support level can hold. Before the 9/11 CPI and the 9/15-16 FOMC, the probability of a structural directional breakout is low, and trading should focus mainly on intraday swings.