Polysilicon Production Cuts Meeting Held Again, Market Confidence Improves [SMM Silicon-Based PV Morning Meeting Summary]

SMM, September 7:

Silicon metal

prices

Last week, oxygen-blown #553 silicon in east China was at 9,400-9,500 yuan/mt, with downstream users purchasing on an as-needed basis. Last Friday, the most-traded contract trended stronger amid sentiment disturbances from the cost side. With supply-demand fundamentals improving and costs remaining firm, silicon metal prices consolidated at highs.

Production

China's silicon metal production in August was 356,300 mt, down 8.2% MoM and down 7.6% YoY. In September, operating rates at different silicon enterprises are moving in both directions. Production cuts at large plants in Xinjiang were implemented at end-August, while silicon enterprises in Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, and Xinjiang have expectations for production increases in September. Overall, the reductions are larger, and silicon metal production is expected to continue its downtrend in September.

Inventory

Social inventory:

SMM data as of September 3 showed total social inventory of silicon metal in major regions at 492,000 mt, down 1,000 mt WoW (excluding Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, Gansu, and other regions).

Polysilicon

Prices

Over the weekend, mainstream producers' expected price for N-type recharging polysilicon was 38.8-42.5 yuan/kg. Weekend market transactions remained quite limited. The results of the production cut meeting have been released, and there are currently significant expectations for production cuts in Q4.

Production

In September, multiple production bases may resume production, and production will continue to increase. In October, affected by the meeting and the onset of the dry season, polysilicon production may decrease.

Inventory

Market transactions are currently extremely limited, with virtually no new orders being signed, and polysilicon inventory has consequently risen somewhat. Some participants are trading warrants.

Module

Prices

Last week, domestic module prices remained basically stable. Trading volume on the distributed side began to increase, mainly due to some specialized module producers offering modest concessions as sales promotions. However, with cost support and constraints, module prices do not have much room for a significant decline, and distributed module prices are expected to maintain a fluctuating trend in the short term. On the centralized side, delivery volumes have recently increased, and some large projects have begun tendering. Installations and orders are both growing, but prices have yet to show upward momentum. Topcon 183, 210R, and 210N high-efficiency modules were quoted at 0.71 Yuan/W, 0.72 Yuan/W, and 0.7255 Yuan/W, respectively. Centralized Topcon 182/183, 210N, and 210R high-efficiency modules were quoted at 0.7005 Yuan/W, 0.7105 Yuan/W, and 0.706 Yuan/W, respectively.

Production

In September, domestic module scheduled production fell by nearly 2 GW. However, outside China, due to increased solar cell inventories, operating rates at some regional packaging lines have risen. Overall, global scheduled production in September maintained a decline, but the extent was limited.

Inventory

Last week, domestic module inventory edged down. Currently, finished module inventory at domestic producers still exceeds 25 GW, but some top-tier players that had not previously followed price increases have already seen their inventories bottom out. Overall inventory distribution is quite divergent.

High-purity quartz sand

Prices: Current domestic inner-layer sand prices are 40,000-47,000 yuan/mt, middle-layer sand prices are 21,000-24,000 yuan/mt, and outer-layer sand prices are 12,500-18,000 yuan/mt. Imported high-purity quartz sand prices are 50,000-53,500 yuan/mt. 33-inch quartz crucibles are priced at 5,500-5,700 yuan/piece, and 36-inch quartz crucibles are priced at 6,500-6,600 yuan/piece. After a series of declines in crucible and quartz sand prices, prices have gradually stopped falling and stabilized. The room for another significant price reduction is expected to be relatively small going forward, and even large-size, long-life crucible prices have fallen to near cost levels.

Production: In September, domestic high-purity quartz sand scheduled production fell about 1% MoM, mainly due to the oversupply situation at crucible plants, which has led some top-tier crucible enterprises to calculate demand and match supply accordingly, thereby slowing their quartz sand procurement pace. Recently, consumption of semiconductor-grade sand, PV quartz plates, and other consumables has risen slightly.

Inventory: In September, imported sand inventory continued to increase. In Q4 2026, wafer enterprises will purchase crucibles rationally based on planned production, and overall quartz sand inventory levels will continue to rise.

PV glass

Prices

3.2mm single-layer coating: 3.2mm single-layer coated PV glass was quoted at 15.8-16.8 yuan/m², with prices rising.

3.2mm double-layer coating: 3.2mm double-layer coated PV glass was quoted at 16.8-17.8 yuan/m², with prices rising.

2.0mm single-layer coating: 2.0mm single-layer coated PV glass was quoted at 9.7-10.5 yuan/m². In the early September pricing cycle, most glass producers raised their quotes to around 10.5 yuan/m², and spot order transaction prices were basically at this level. However, top-tier players, due to their larger volumes and additional benefits such as discounts, had transaction prices between 9.7-10.3 yuan/m². Overall, glass prices are still expected to continue rising.

2.0mm double-layer coating: 2.0mm double-layer coated PV glass was quoted at 10.7-11.5 yuan/m², with prices rising.

Production

Last week, domestic top-tier players entered cold repairs, and some second-tier enterprises began to follow suit. A second round of production cuts has already begun, and the risk of undersupply is still intensifying.

Inventory

Last week, the decline in domestic PV glass days of inventories began to accelerate. Module producers increased their procurement volumes, and with prices expected to continue rising, procurement volume is likely to continue increasing during the post-settlement period this month.