Spot and futures prices hold up well; alumina inventory accumulates slightly amid production resumptions and growth [SMM Alumina Morning Comment]

9.07 Alumina Morning Comment

Futures market: On the night of September 7, the most-traded alumina 2610 contract opened at 2,749 yuan/mt, reached a high of 2,768 yuan/mt and a low of 2,746 yuan/mt, and settled at 2,760 yuan/mt, up 12 yuan/mt or 0.44% from the previous trading day's settlement price. Trading volume was 62,400 lots and open interest was 111,600 lots, down 2,125 lots from the previous day. From a technical perspective, prices traded above the MA5 (2,728.60), MA10 (2,690.60), MA30 (2,684.93), and MA60 (2,735.70), as the short- and medium-term technical picture continued to repair. In the MACD indicator, DIF (5.72) was above DEA (-7.42), and the MACD histogram printed 26.28, with the red bars continuing to expand, indicating that short-term bullish momentum remains relatively strong. During the night session, futures prices stayed high and further climbed above the MA60, but with some position reduction. In the short term, attention should be paid to resistance near 2,760-2,770 yuan/mt and the sustainability of upward momentum, with support seen in the 2,730-2,740 yuan/mt area below.

Bauxite: As of September 3, 2026, the SMM imported bauxite CIF index was reported at $72/mt, flat from the previous trading day; the average price of high-grade bauxite (Shanxi) was reported at 585 yuan/mt, flat from the previous trading day; the average price of low-grade bauxite (Shanxi) was reported at 540 yuan/mt, flat from the previous trading day; the average price of high-grade bauxite (Henan) was reported at 590 yuan/mt, flat from the previous trading day; the average price of low-grade bauxite (Henan) was reported at 520 yuan/mt, flat from the previous trading day; the average price of high-grade bauxite (Guangxi) was reported at 365 yuan/mt, flat from the previous trading day; the average price of low-grade bauxite (Guangxi) was reported at 327.5 yuan/mt, flat from the previous trading day; the average price of high-grade bauxite (Guizhou) was reported at 495 yuan/mt, flat from the previous trading day; the average price of low-grade bauxite (Guizhou) was reported at 400 yuan/mt, flat from the previous trading day; the average price of Guiyang bauxite (60%/6.0) was reported at 515 yuan/mt, flat from the previous trading day; the average SMM Australian low-temperature bauxite CIF price was reported at $65/mt, up $2/mt from the previous trading day; the average SMM Australian high-temperature bauxite CIF price was reported at $60.50/mt, up $2/mt from the previous trading day; the average SMM Guinean bauxite FOB price was reported at $40/mt, flat from the previous trading day; the average SMM Guinean bauxite CIF price was reported at $71.5/mt, flat from the previous trading day; the average Malaysian bauxite CIF price was reported at $52/mt, flat from the previous trading day; the average Malaysian bauxite CIF (washed) price was reported at $62.50/mt, flat from the previous trading day; the average Ghanaian bauxite CIF price was reported at $78/mt, flat from the previous trading day; the average Indonesian bauxite FOB price was reported at $37/mt in physical content, flat from the previous trading day; the bauxite CFR (Turkey) price was reported at $72.50/dmt, flat from the previous trading day.

Spot alumina: On September 4, the SMM alumina index stood at 2,679.02 yuan/mt, up 2.84 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The SMM Shandong alumina index stood at 2,679.17 yuan/mt, up 2.10 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The SMM Henan alumina index stood at 2,706.73 yuan/mt, up 4.29 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The SMM Shanxi alumina index stood at 2,702.08 yuan/mt, up 2.62 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The SMM Guizhou alumina index stood at 2,713.10 yuan/mt, up 1.28 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The SMM Guangxi alumina index stood at 2,594.69 yuan/mt, up 4.95 yuan/mt from the previous trading day.

Spot-futures price spread daily: According to SMM data, on September 4, the SMM alumina index was at a discount of 76.98 yuan/mt against the latest traded price of the most-traded contract at 11:30.

Warrant daily: On September 4, total registered alumina warrants stood at 250,779 mt, up 1,197 mt from the previous trading day. Total registered alumina warrants in Shandong stood at 5,092 mt, flat from the previous trading day. Total registered alumina warrants in Henan stood at 0 mt, flat from the previous trading day. Total registered alumina warrants in Guangxi stood at 28,576 mt, flat from the previous trading day. Total registered alumina warrants in Gansu stood at 20,978 mt, flat from the previous trading day. Total registered alumina warrants in Xinjiang stood at 196,133 mt, up 1,197 mt from the previous trading day.

Markets outside China: On September 4, the FOB Western Australia alumina price stood at $350/mt. The USD/CNY exchange rate stood at 6.7333. The Australia-China ocean freight rate stood at $33.40/mt. The EXW price at major domestic ports was equivalent to about 2,997.15 yuan/mt, 318.13 yuan/mt higher than the SMM alumina index.

Summary: Spot alumina prices were broadly stable this week. Constrained by futures fluctuations, prices held at current levels with limited changes, but the supply side continued to pressure the market. In terms of supply, an alumina enterprise in Shanxi began resuming production, and with some northern enterprises completing maintenance, production recovered somewhat. Enterprises in Guangxi that had previously undergone maintenance have returned to normal levels, while a few enterprises in south China still made minor adjustments, with overall production still showing growth. Outside China, Australian alumina transaction prices pulled back from $360/mt to around $350/mt, mainly because the earlier influx of cargoes into China decreased, easing supply pressure outside China and prompting a corresponding price correction. In terms of inventory, total domestic inventory increased by 8,000 mt this week to 7.27 million mt. Looking ahead to next week, operating capacity still has room to recover, prices are expected to fluctuate around current levels constrained by futures, and inventory is expected to edge up.

[Except for public information, all other data are processed by SMM based on public information, market communication, and SMM's internal database models, and are for reference only, not constituting decision-making advice.]