SMM, September 4:
The most-traded SHFE aluminum 2610 contract closed at 24,290 yuan/mt today, up 15 yuan on the day, a gain of 0.06%. Trading volume was 151,835 lots, and open interest was 254,755 lots, down 2,092 lots on the day. After the rapid rise, both bulls and bears reduced positions to lock in gains. Prices held above the 5-day, 10-day, 30-day, and 60-day moving averages. Short-term bearish pressure continued to ease, the rebound slowed somewhat, and the contract retreated after an intraday surge to close slightly higher. Bullish dip-buying momentum remained moderate. The 5-day and 10-day moving averages turned upward, while the 30-day and 60-day moving averages continued to trend lower. The medium-term downtrend has not been fully reversed. The previous high range above constitutes strong medium and long-term resistance, constraining rebound room. Multiple short-term moving averages below form solid support at lower levels. The DIF and DEA lines are both above the zero axis, with DIF above DEA. The MACD red bars continued to expand, indicating bullish momentum is still being released. The market has entered a short-term consolidation phase.
SMM commentary: Macro tightening expectations have been digested. Low inventory and accelerating destocking are providing a floor and dominating pricing this week. However, peak-season demand has not materialized sufficiently, the risk of aluminum billet inventory buildup transmitting to ingot inventories remains, and overseas supply continues to recover, limiting upside room for aluminum prices. Aluminum prices are expected to consolidate on a strong note in the near term.
The most-traded alumina 2610 contract closed at 2,757 yuan/mt today, up 50 yuan on the day, a gain of 1.85%. Trading volume was 219,656 lots, and open interest was 113,727 lots, down 14,117 lots MoM. Profit-taking was concentrated during the rapid rebound. Prices held above the 5-day, 10-day, 30-day, and 60-day moving averages. The short-term rebound accelerated again, and bullish dip-buying momentum at lower levels strengthened notably. The 5-day and 10-day moving averages continued to trend downward, and the medium-term drift lower has not been reversed. The 60-day moving average above constitutes strong medium and long-term resistance, constraining rebound upside room. The DIF and DEA lines are running near each other, and the MACD red bars expanded significantly, indicating accelerating release of short-term rebound momentum.
SMM commentary: Spot alumina prices were broadly stable this week. Constrained by futures fluctuations, prices held at current levels with limited movement, but the supply side continued to pressure the market. In terms of supply, China's production increased by 15,000 mt this week to 1.718 million mt. An alumina refinery in Shanxi began resuming production, and some northern enterprises completed maintenance, leading to a recovery in output. The Guangxi refinery that was previously under maintenance has returned to normal levels, while a few southern enterprises still made minor adjustments. Overall production remained on a growth trajectory. Outside China, Australian alumina transaction prices pulled back from $360/mt to around $350/mt, mainly because the earlier influx of cargoes into China has diminished, easing overseas supply pressure and prompting a corresponding price correction. On the inventory side, total national inventory increased by 8,000 mt this week to 7.27 million mt. By segment: aluminum smelter raw material inventory increased by 16,000 mt to 3.444 million mt, mainly due to restocking stimulated by lower prices. In-factory alumina inventory increased by 9,000 mt to 1.234 million mt, affected by a slight buildup as operations recovered. Port inventory decreased by 19,000 mt to 1.017 million mt, mainly due to increased cargo pick-up. Looking ahead to next week, operating capacity still has room to recover. Prices are expected to fluctuate around current levels, constrained by futures, and inventory is expected to edge higher.
[The information provided is for reference only. This article does not constitute direct investment research or decision-making advice. Clients should make decisions prudently and not use this as a substitute for independent judgment. Any decisions made by clients are not related to SMM.]
