SHFE lead retreats after rapid rise, closing with a small bullish candle; high-level narrow-range stalemate pattern remains unchanged [Lead Futures Brief Comment]

SMM, September 4:

Intraday, the SHFE lead 2610 contract opened at 16,105 yuan/mt, shot up to an intraday high of 16,180 yuan/mt before midday, then consolidated and pulled back, ultimately closing at 16,130 yuan/mt, up 10 yuan/mt or 0.06% from the previous trading day's closing price; volume was 38,785 lots and open interest was 63,783 lots. SHFE lead has moved sideways with small candlesticks for several consecutive days, supported below by spot premiums for primary lead, tight circulating supply, and the middle Bollinger Band, while capped above by widening discounts for secondary refined lead, increasing supply, and weak downstream demand, leaving limited upside and downside room. SHFE lead is expected to maintain a pattern of consolidation at highs in the short term, with focus on tonight's US dollar movement driven by the difference between nonfarm payrolls and expectations, sentiment in the LME base metals sector, as well as support at the 16,000 level and follow-through in spot transactions.

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