[SMM Weekly Review of the Indonesian Market] Many Price Movements in Indonesian Steel Are Not Fundamentally Driven

Published: Sep 4, 2026 15:19

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Following price rises last Tuesday and Thursday, prices increased again this Wednesday and Friday: wire rod (495→505 USD/ton), slab (480→485 USD/ton), HRC (515→525 USD/ton), and billet (475→480 USD/ton). This was driven by rising coking coal prices in China, which pushed up Chinese product prices and prompted Indonesian mills to follow suit, while buyers remain in wait-and-see mode over China's future price direction. Today's increase was triggered by an accident at a Vietnamese steel mill, further delaying monthly offers.

The market now perceives itself to be in a bullish trend with sound fundamentals, though it hasn't truly confirmed this price level yet — hence the smaller gains compared to last week, since this rise isn't fundamentally driven. If this continues, expect volatility next week as the market tests whether mills' pricing power or buyers' wait-and-see stance wins out — the latter would force mills to cut prices to spur purchases.

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